Criteria, calculations, transparency... Why is Lionel Messi's FIFA-The Best trophy a scandal?

Monday evening in London, during a ceremony where he did not even attend, Lionel Messi won his third FIFA The Best trophy for best player of the year 2023. The Argentine is ahead of the Norwegian in the rankings Erling Haaland and Frenchman Kylian Mbappé.

Many observers have since cried out for controversy. Shared between six months at PSG and six months at Inter Miami, Lionel Messi's year 2023 is honorable but not flamboyant. In terms of trophies won, the “Pulga” is far from the Premier League-FA Cup-Champions League treble achieved by Erling Haaland with Manchester City. The statistics don't work in his favor either. Even the Saudi expatriate Cristiano Ronaldo, absent from the debates, displays more impressive figures.

How can we explain such a triumph? Rather than calling it an incredible case of corruption, let's look at the facts. FIFA has published details of the votes as well as the rules for calculating points on its website. The document reveals that the points allocation system largely benefits Lionel Messi.

Points are awarded by a jury composed of four types of actors:

1) The coaches of all men's national teams

2) The captains of all men's national teams

3) A journalist specializing in each national team

4) A public vote among fans around the world registered on FIFA.com (according to the exact terms of FIFA)

Each of these actors chooses three players to whom he awards 5 points, 3 points and 1 point. Players therefore obtain a total in these four categories. The totals obtained are shown in the table below. The total public vote raises a first question. This is the only category where Lionel Messi comes well ahead of Erling Haaland.

If the only prerequisite for voting is to be registered on the FIFA.com website, how can we guarantee the fairness and transparency of this vote? How can we ensure that these fans actually come “from all over the world”? FIFA specifies that supporters can “vote for all players […] provided that this vote is carried out in a fair manner”. It's hard to imagine what's behind the term "fair".

If the public vote is put aside and we focus exclusively on the other three criteria, Erling Haaland is in the lead among the coaches and journalists, but behind among the captains. By adding the three totals, the Norwegian has a comfortable lead over the Argentinian, with 1827 points against 1468. However, for the final count, these totals have little importance. FIFA chose to bring them back to another points system. For each of the four categories, the footballer who comes first is awarded 13 points. The second, 11 points. The third, 9 points. The fourth, 8 points. And so on.

Result of the races, Erling Haaland's total is no longer 1827 but 37 (11 13 13), and that of Lionel Messi is no longer 1468 but 35 (13 11 11). The weighting, which was 1.2 with the first two totals, is now only 1 with the new point system. Clearly, the gap between the two players has been artificially narrowed. If we add the public vote, namely 11 points for Haaland and 13 points for Messi, the two men find themselves tied with 48 points.

And what does FIFA decide in the event of a tie between two players? According to article 12 of the trophy award regulations, the winner is “the player having obtained the greatest number of “five points” among the votes cast by the captains of the men’s national teams”. In this game, it is Lionel Messi who wins.

But this small subtlety of regulation should not overshadow the essential. Lionel Messi's coronation in the FIFA-The Best trophy owes a lot to an advantageous system for calculating advantageous points and to a public vote which raises questions of transparency.