“The end of the inflation cycle is well and truly here”: shelf prices have finally (almost) stopped rising in April

Finally the end of the tunnel for consumers? Inflation in the prices of consumer products on shelves has almost returned to zero over one year, according to the latest data analyzed by panelist Circana. More precisely, this appears at 0.5% between April 2023 and April 2024, a sharp decrease compared to March 2024 (2.6%). As a reminder, a year ago, in April 2023, inflation in supermarkets reached 16.2%. “The end of the inflation cycle is indeed here,” concludes Circana in its report, published this Thursday. Emily Mayer, consumer goods expert at the firm, puts it differently: “We can now say that inflation on consumer products is under control,” she wrote on the professional social network LinkedIn, “and this , on all brands: national, distributor brands and first prices”.

Be careful, however, this figure of 0.5% does not mean that the prices of all products have stopped rising. Emily Mayer speaks of a “balance” between products whose prices are falling and others whose labels are still inflating. Because we find prices still increasing in the liquids section (1.7%) and groceries (1.1%). In detail, the most inflationary products in April over a year are cheese by the cut (11.9%), dehydrated mashed potatoes (9.8%), canned flageolet (9.6%). ), oils (7.8%) and canned corn (7.8%).

Conversely, the maintenance/hygiene department (DPH) is strongly deflationary, at -2.4% over one year. Emily Mayer sees this as an effect of the Egalim 3 law, known as the Descrozaille law, named after its rapporteur at the National Assembly, which came into force on March 1 and which limits promotions on hygiene and cleaning products to 34 % value. This strategy of price reductions serves to “compensate for the cessation of big promotions”, underlines the business insights director at Circana.

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Guest on BFMTV/RMC at the end of March, Système U CEO Dominique Schelcher had already reported such a trend. “There is one area where there are significant declines at the moment, these are cleaning products. This is the consequence of the new law which changed the rule on promotions in this department, which means that there are a little fewer promotions on cleaning and hygiene products, on the other hand the prices of the products of everyday life in these departments are falling as a result, up to 5% and even more,” indicated the manager of the brand.

Thus, over one year, four of the five most deflationary products are part of these departments: colorings (-7.4%), facial care (-6.2%), conditioners and treatments (-6% ) and body care (-5.5%). And month by month, if overall inflation continues its decreasing phase (-0.3% over one month), it is hygiene and cleaning products that are pushing prices down (-1.6% over one month). %). In the space of a month, facial care saw its labels drop on average by more than 9%, coloring by almost 8% and conditioners and shampoos by around 5%.

If the (long) inflationary parenthesis, which lasted more than two years, seems to be closing, prices will not return to their previous level, as distributors have repeatedly repeated. And certain products have seen their prices particularly inflate: “compared to a year ago, we pay 25% more for olive oil, 11% more for orange juice (100% pure juice) and 11% more for baking chocolate 7% more expensive,” explained Emily Mayer on LinkedIn. Other products have still seen their prices drop over the past year, such as sunflower oil (-25%), frozen fruits (-10%), poultry ham and facial care ( -6%).