Gas in Europe: the IEA warns of possible tensions at the end of winter

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns on Tuesday of possible tensions in Europe on the gas market, particularly in the event of a cold winter and new restrictions on the delivery of Russian gas in gas pipelines, according to a report on the outlook for the gas market in 2026. “Despite the gradual rebalancing of gas markets, risks and uncertainties weigh on the outlook for winter 2023-24,” underlines the IEA in this report.

The European Union's gas storage facilities may be almost 96% full at the start of the heating season, but the IEA is cautious about security of supply, at the heart of major fears of shortages in 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine. “A cold winter combined with reduced availability of liquefied gas (LNG, nlr)” transported by ships “and a further drop in pipeline deliveries of Russian gas could reignite market tensions, particularly towards the end of the year. winter 2023-24,” explains the OECD agency based in Paris. “The risk of price volatility, particularly in the event of a cold winter, is therefore worrying,” she added in a press release.

Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow has sharply reduced its gas pipeline deliveries to the EU, pushing states to urgently reorganize their supplies. They thus increased their LNG purchases by 70% last year, more than 40% coming from the United States but also from Russia (17% of European purchases from January to July 2023). “We are in a better position” this year, but Europe is facing “at least two major challenges,” assured the head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, on September 18 in Paris. “First, if the winter is much harsher than last year (...). Secondly, Europe still receives gas from Russia, and it could be cut off any day,” he stressed. Some Eastern European countries continue to receive some Russian gas via Ukraine.

The commissioning of new LNG capacities expected in 2025-2026 “should alleviate some of the concerns linked (...) to the security of supply that the markets have been experiencing since Russia began to withhold its supplies”, indicated Keisuke Sadamori, director of energy markets and security at the IEA, quoted in the press release.

For the IEA, the global energy crisis of 2022 “marked the start of a new era for global gas markets, after a decade of strong growth between 2011 and 2021”, described as the “Golden Age of Gas ". In the future, the Agency expects a slowdown in growth in global gas demand, reaching 1.6% per year between 2022 and 2026, compared to an annual average of 2.5% between 2017 and 2021. This slowdown is driven by falling consumption in "mature markets", Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America, where gas demand peaked in 2021 and is expected to decline by 1% per year until 2026 , thanks to “accelerating the deployment of renewable energies and improving energy efficiency”.

Ultimately, rising demand will be concentrated in fast-growing Asian markets and some gas-rich economies in the Middle East and Africa. China alone is expected to account for almost half of the total growth in global gas demand through 2026.