With the accession of Sweden, the Baltic becomes a "NATO lake"

Special Envoy to Vilnius

Sweden's membership in NATO is only a matter of time and legal formality. After the agreement reached Monday evening with Turkey, the political blockage posed by Recep Tayyip Erdogan jumped. Hungary, which had not ratified Sweden's accession either to exercise a balance of power with European countries, should no longer put up resistance. Once these last two parliaments have ratified the process, the Atlantic Alliance will have 32 members, including all the Nordic countries, from Iceland to Finland. “We have a lot to bring” to the Alliance, rejoiced Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson on his arrival at the Atlantic Alliance summit on Tuesday in Vilnius, Lithuania. He had, however, been invited to attend the meeting of the North Atlantic Council.

Sweden was already almost a member. It has long participated in allied exercises. Its military cooperation with Finland and Norway is very advanced, with the development of joint defense plans. “Few countries are as concerned” as Norway by Sweden's accession, welcomed Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, emphasizing the consequences of this enlargement for the security and defense of the Nordic countries. "But NATO is no threat to anyone," he said. The Alliance is indeed strictly defensive. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, who hoped to challenge the West with his war in Ukraine, it is nonetheless a strategic setback. The Baltic Sea becomes a “NATO lake” isolating the Russian ports of Saint-Petersburg and Kaliningrad.

By becoming a member, Stockholm will have access to military discussions between allies. With some 14,000 soldiers, the Swedish army is limited but the geographical location makes it essential in the defense of northern Europe. The island of Gotland in particular, in the center of the Baltic Sea, will be better integrated into the defense plans. Securing the Far North is also an issue for the Alliance. “Both Finland and Sweden have experience in dealing with the challenges Russia presents in multiple areas. They bring essential experience in countering hybrid threats and combating in the Arctic through a whole-of-society approach to security,” writes researcher and defense issues expert Minna Alander, in an article published by The Rubicon. For the Alliance, it is also a relief and the end of a headache. By being excluded, Sweden did not benefit from the protection guaranteed by Article 5 of the Treaty. This diplomatic gray area could have been exploited by Russia.

The price paid by the allies to obtain the agreement of Recep Tayyip Erdogan is yet to be detailed. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson pledged to engage his country in the fight against terrorism. Kurdish groups are constantly in Turkey's sights. The Turkish president had also put in the balance the question of joining the European Union. The capitals have not reported yet. The subject is rhetorical. The question was buried long ago. What is at stake in the agreement is more to be found in future arms deliveries. Ankara would like to obtain American F16s in particular. Delivery was suspended in 2021 when Turkey opted for the Russian S300 defense system. Washington did not want its devices to be studied, one way or another, by Moscow. But on Monday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said President Joe Biden was now ready "to move forward" on the F16 issue. Congress, which holds the key, has also agreed to soften its positions. Democratic Senator Bob Menendez assured that if "a lull" intervened in Turkish operations "against its neighbors", discussions could begin.