Victory for a left opportunist

Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva had to wait almost three hours before his wafer-thin election victory was certain. With 50.9 percent, the left-wing politician, who had previously governed Brazil from 2003 to 2011, gained the upper hand much narrower than expected in the runoff election for the presidency. The right-wing populist incumbent Jair Bolsonaro (49.1 percent) was voted out. Given the broad support for Lula in the national and international media, and the candidates who lost in the first ballot, that was a surprisingly small success. Just four weeks ago, polling institutes had only seen Bolsonaro at just over 30 percent.

With Lula's election victory, the "People's Republic of Latin America" ​​is almost complete: Almost all major economies between the Rio Bravo and Tierra del Fuego are now governed by the left or extreme left. Conservative or neoliberal governments are in opposition or in prison. It is likely to become more expensive for the West to assert its own political interests.

Latin America's left sees the West above all as a former colonial power that has to pay damages, feel guilty and sometimes serve as a scapegoat when governments are unable to implement grandiose campaign promises. Meanwhile, the business is being done by the Chinese, who work together with all regions without ideology and are free from the historical blemish of a colonial power in Latin America. Unlike Bolsonaro, Lula can do much better with Beijing.

After the European Union put the free trade agreement with the Mercosur confederation on hold due to increasing deforestation in the Amazon under Bolsonaro, election winner Lula now has all options in his hands. He can dictate his terms. "We want fairer international trade," Lula said, without specifying exactly what that means. In the direction of Europe and the USA, he made it clear: "We have no interest in trade agreements that condemn our country to the eternal role of exporter of goods and raw materials."

Left-wing populist Lula knows that he is in a good tactical position and has sought proximity to Beijing and Moscow in the past. He can choose his partners, while Bolsonaro has isolated the country through bullying and intransigence in Amazonian politics, thereby restricting trade options. In the end, despite appealing economic data, Bolsonaro got in his own way with his own style.

In foreign policy, however, Lula is a bit further removed from Western ideas than Bolsonaro. In particular, Lula's support for the extreme left-wing dictatorships of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, in which the opposition is violently suppressed, is at odds with US and EU values. Globo journalist Miriam Leitao commented that Lula's victory was a triumph of democracy against autocracy. This is true in relation to Brazil, but in relation to Latin America Lula's proximity to the dictatorship poses a real threat to democracy.

Lula has made big promises to his voters: he announced to the favela population that things would soon be noticeably better for them. He promised the West zero deforestation in the Amazon, good cooperation with the agricultural industry, and the state oil company Petrobras that it would not be privatized. "The Brazilian people want to live well, eat well, live well," Lula said in the evening. The people want good jobs, a salary that is always above inflation, and quality public health and education. With that, Lula has set the bar for the next four years. Among other things, he will initially benefit from the record profits of the oil company Petrobras, which regained its old strength under Bolsonaro.

At the same time, Lula tried to respond to the other half of the country that had refused to vote for him: "There are no two Brazils." It was the time to lay down arms. In one of the dirtiest election campaigns of recent years, however, the Lula camp sometimes dished out far below the belt and tore deep wounds. The daily Estao recently commented that Lula treated voters who refused to vote for him as enemies.

The horror, even fear, could be seen on their faces on Sunday evening. It remains to be seen how Lula intends to fill in the ditch he dug together with Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro had not commented on the result until midnight, at 10:06 p.m. the lights went out in the presidential palace. That reminds me of Hillary Clinton. In 2016, she lacked the strength to speak out on election night after losing to Donald Trump.

Lula's comparatively weak performance can also be explained by his background and the fact that his party has not had a young, fresh face: To date, the role of Lula and his left-wing workers' party PT in the corruption scandals involving the Petrobras and Odebrecht corporations has not been legally or politically addressed. In the past, his party had parliamentarians bribed to vote for proposed legislation.

In addition, Lula has a history of breaking environmental campaign promises and colluding with opponents who are not ideologically on his side. He seeks the proximity of Evangelicals and Catholics, trade unions, industry, entrepreneurship - and at the same time. It's the mix of opportunism and negotiation skills that Lula will need if his broad alliance is to survive the next four years.

Bolsonaro's defeat in turn enables the future Brazilian opposition to reorganize itself in terms of personnel and content. Like the Republicans in the US in the post-Trump era, she will face the question of whether to return to serious conservatism or continue to rely on rowdy, vulgar right-wing populism. The election of centre-right politician Eduardo Leite as governor of the economically strong state of Rio Grande do Sul is a clue here. The openly homosexual conservative politician is one of the greatest political talents in Brazil. In the next presidential election in 2026, his serious demeanor should make him an option for the right-wing camp.