German confidence in the Bundeswehr falls to its lowest point

In the midst of Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, the Germans are dramatically losing confidence in their own armed forces. Only 35 percent of those surveyed stated that they had “very great” or “great” trust in the Bundeswehr as a whole. This value marks by far a record low in the past 25 years. This is the result of the new Germany trend that Infratest Dimap collected on behalf of ARD “Tagesthemen” and WELT. Questions about the Bundeswehr were asked in the survey for the first time in 1998.

In the course of the war and the disputes over German arms deliveries to Ukraine, new deficiencies in the equipment and procurement system of the Bundeswehr and criticism of the conduct of Christine Lambrecht (SPD), who was Defense Minister from the end of 2021 to mid-January of this year, have become apparent in recent months was.

A majority of 54 percent of Germans now show “little” or “no” confidence in the Germany trend that “the Bundeswehr and its allies could ward off a possible attack on NATO territory”; 38 percent see it more positively. Accordingly, 85 percent do not trust that the current equipment of the Bundeswehr is sufficient for its mission. And 60 percent lack the confidence that the Bundeswehr will act "appropriately against right-wing extremist ideas in its ranks".

The federal government's decision to deliver German battle tanks to Ukraine after all is approved by 52 percent of those surveyed; However, 39 percent consider it a mistake. The number of those who fear the Federal Republic of Germany being directly involved in the war is also growing: 59 percent are “greatly” or “very gravely” concerned that Germany could be drawn directly into the war. This is an increase of three percentage points compared to October 2022.

On the other hand, concern about the consequences of the war for economic development in Germany is receding. Another 68 percent express concern that the economic situation in Germany is deteriorating – a drop of twelve percentage points compared to April last year, when the war broke out just two months ago. 60 percent now fear that “Russia will attack other countries in Europe”. And 82 percent are “very” or “very” worried about the people of Ukraine – a nine-point drop from April 2022.

As far as the assessment of the federal government's Ukraine policy is concerned, a trend is emerging: a growing majority of 58 percent of those surveyed express the opinion that the diplomatic efforts to end the war did not go far enough - in East Germany 61 percent share this view . And the proportion of those for whom supporting Ukraine with weapons goes too far rises to 35 percent overall: 55 percent hold this position in eastern Germany and 30 percent in western Germany.

All in all, supporters of the Greens (65 percent) and SPD (61 percent) in particular are satisfied with the course taken by the federal government in the Ukraine war. This is followed by supporters of the CDU/CSU with 38 percent and supporters of the FDP with 33 percent. However, 92 percent of AfD supporters are “less” or “not at all satisfied”.

Ten years after the founding of what has now become a radical right-wing party, some people’s views of the AfD are also changing: In September 2013, 20 percent of those surveyed at the time “rather” agreed with the sentence: “I would like it if the AfD were represented in the Bundestag. Today, almost a third (32 percent) "rather" agrees with the sentence: "I think it's good that the AfD is represented in the Bundestag."

Three quarters are of the opinion that the AfD does not distance itself enough from right-wing extremist positions. 58 percent are in favor of the other parties represented in the Bundestag excluding cooperation with the AfD, 36 percent are against it. And 16 percent of those surveyed think it's good that the AfD shows understanding for Russian positions in the Ukraine war.

If there were a federal election next Sunday, the SPD could improve by two points to 20 percent compared to the previous month. This puts her ahead of the Greens, who lose one point and reach 18 percent. The common traffic light coalition partner FDP recorded a slight gain from one point to seven percent. The CDU/CSU are ahead with 27 percent, two points less than a month ago. The AfD remains at 15 percent. The left comes to four percent (minus one point) and would therefore no longer make it into the Bundestag.

In the ranking of satisfaction with top politicians, FDP leader Christian Lindner and Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) are among the clearest winners, each with increases of three points compared to the previous month. Habeck is in second place behind Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens), Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) is in third place - and fourth place is taken by the new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD).

For the Deutschlandtrend, Infratest Dimap surveyed 1,328 eligible voters from January 30 to February 1 - in 868 telephone interviews and 460 online interviews. The error tolerance is between two and three percentage points.

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