Election in Taiwan: “the military option is very risky for China”

Doctor in Political Science and International Relations, Marc Julienne is a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), responsible for China activities within the Asia Center, and teaches at INALCO.

LE FIGARO. - Saturday January 13, Taiwan votes to elect its new president. Lai Ching-te, candidate of the ruling party, is favored in the polls. How is this election viewed in China?

Marc JULIENNE. - China has no real ally among the Taiwanese presidential candidates, but it favors the candidates who least serve its interests, that is to say the parties which do not support independence. To do this, it puts political and military pressure on the island, to dissuade both the pro-independence party from moving forward on this path, and voters from supporting this party. In a more coercive manner, China is deploying a strategy of disinformation in Taiwanese society and on social networks, spreading rumors and false information about the Progressive Democratic Party and its national and local candidates.

At the end of August, China launched military maneuvers around Taiwan as a “stern warning” following a visit by Taiwan Vice President William Lai to the United States. In retrospect, how can we understand this event?

At each meeting between very senior Taiwanese and American officials, Beijing strongly demonstrates its discontent through military exercises. These are also opportunities for the Chinese army to carry out larger-scale maneuvers than usual. Already in April 2023, President Tsai Ing-wen made a stopover in the United States, in California, to meet the new Speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy. China then launched major air and naval exercises in the strait, just as French President Emmanuel Macron was completing a state visit to the country.

In the same vein, the largest Chinese military deployment around Taiwan in history followed Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei in August 2022. It must nevertheless be kept in mind that Chinese military activities in the Strait and around Taiwan are daily, and not limited to these international meetings.

How is China increasing its military capabilities? Is Taiwan a goal for her?

China has two main objectives in terms of military capabilities. The first is to fill certain gaps to strengthen its projection capabilities: in-flight refueling tankers, amphibious ships, anti-submarine warfare. This equipment is all the more a priority as it is essential for a possible offensive on Taiwan. The second objective is the qualitative upgrade of an army which is very numerous but very unequal and largely inexperienced in combat.

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Xi Jinping has already deemed “reunification” with Taiwan “inevitable”. For his wishes, he renewed his desire to annex the island. What are Beijing's other options?

Xi Jinping's options are dwindling. Taiwanese identity is progressing inexorably in Taiwan. With it, the desire for unification with the continent is reduced, especially deterred by ideological radicalization in Popular China. Time is therefore no longer on Beijing's side. In addition, his proposal to apply the “one country, two systems” principle to Taiwan – until now attributed to Hong Kong with the success that we know – is unanimously rejected on the island and fuels even more mistrust.

China has announced for several years that it wants to annex Taiwan. Why hasn’t she done it yet? Is she waiting for a special event?

The essential objective of the Communist Party is unification, peacefully if possible, by force if necessary. Not only is the military option not a priority, but it is very risky in the short term due to the army's capacity gaps. However, Xi Jinping displays a much more bellicose speech and actions than in the past which should encourage us to seriously observe the evolution of cross-Strait relations.