Space junk on a 5,800-mph collision course to the moon

The rocket's remnants will hit the moon at 5,800 mph (9.300 km/h) on Friday. This is far from the prying eyes of telescopes. Satellite images may not be able to confirm the impact for weeks or even months.

Experts believe it has been moving haphazardly in space since China launched it almost a decade ago. However, Chinese officials doubt it is theirs.

Scientists expect that the object will leave a hole measuring 33 to 66 feet (10-20 meters) in diameter and send moon dust hundreds of miles (kilometers), across the barren, pockmarked surface.

It is easy to track low-orbiting space junk. It is unlikely that objects launching into space will hit anything, and far-flung objects are often forgotten by observers.

After asteroid tracker Bill Gray had identified the collision course in January, SpaceX was given the rap for the upcoming lunar litter. A month later, he corrected his mistake and said that the mystery object was not a SpaceX Falcon Rocket upper stage from NASA's 2015 deep space climate observatory launch.
Gray stated that it was most likely the third stage of the Chinese rocket that sent a sample capsule to the Moon and back in 2014. Officials from the Chinese ministry said that the upper stage had entered Earth's atmosphere and been burned.

However, there were two Chinese missions that had similar names -- 2020's lunar sample returning mission and the test flight -- and U.S. observers think the two are being confused.

U.S. Space Command confirmed Tuesday that the Chinese upperstage from the 2014 lunar mission was not deorbited as previously stated in its database. It could not confirm the origin country for the object that was about to strike the Moon.

A spokesperson stated that they focus on objects closer than the Earth.

Gray, a mathematician as well as physicist said that he is confident now that China has launched a rocket.

He said, "I have become a bit more cautious about such matters." "But I just don't see how it could be any other."

Jonathan McDowell, of the Harvard and Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, supports Gray's revised assessment but states: "The effect won't change." It will leave another small crater at the moon.

Numerous craters can be found on the moon, some of which are up to 1,600 miles (1,500 kilometers). The moon has little or no atmosphere so it is vulnerable to meteors and asteroids. Impact craters can last forever because there is no weather.

China has a lunar landing craft on the moon's farside, but it is too far away to detect Friday’s impact north of the Equator. NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter also will be out of range. It is unlikely that India's moon-orbiting Chandrayaan-2 satellite will pass by.

"I'd hoped for something significant to hit the moon for a while. Gray stated that it would have been ideal if it had hit the moon's near side at some point when we could actually see it.

Gray questioned the claims of an engineer from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory after he initially blamed the strike on Elon Musk’s SpaceX. He's now "pretty thoroughly convinced" that it's a Chinese part for a Chinese rocket. This is based on both orbital tracking data back to 2014 and data from the short-lived hamradio experiment.

Gray's reassessment is supported by JPL's Center for Near Earth Object Studies. A University of Arizona team recently identified the Chinese Long March Rocket segment using the light reflecting off its paint during telescope observations of the careening tube.

It measures approximately 40 feet (12 m) long by 10 feet (3 m) wide and does a somersault about every two to three seconds.

Gray claimed that SpaceX never reached out to him to dispute his original claim. The Chinese have not.

It's not a SpaceX or China problem. Gray stated that nobody is particularly concerned about what they do to junk in this type of orbit.

McDowell says it is difficult to track deep space mission remnants such as this. McDowell says that the moon's gravity can change an object's trajectory during flybys, which can lead to uncertainty. McDowell pointed out that there is no database available, other than those "cobbled together", Gray, and a few others.

McDowell stated, "We now live in an era when many countries and private corporations are putting stuff into deep space. It's time for us to start keeping track of it." "Right now, there is no one. Just a few people who are interested in the subject."