Survey: the European elections, decisive vote for the first time?

Since the first election in 1979, the European elections have never really structured French political life. The winners never succeed in transforming the test into the following national elections. On the other hand, they can torpedo careers. Michel Rocard had the bitter experience of this in 1994, who, followed by the list led by Bernard Tapie, saw his presidential ambitions reduced to nothing.

What will happen this time? The Verian barometer gives a small indication, even if it cannot be compared to an election and there are still two months left in a campaign where voters regularly decide at the last moment. On the left, Raphaël Glucksmann is in the lead, as in voting intentions, progressing regularly. The new figure of ecology, Marie Toussaint, is struggling to make herself known. Head of the Renaissance list, Valérie Hayer is also struggling to establish herself. With 9%, its future rating is very low. However, she remains at the same level as Nathalie Loiseau, tested in 2019 at 8%. But the latter had been a minister and therefore benefited from greater notoriety.

The former President of the Republic is making a notable rise in the barometer. Thanks in particular to supporters of the left (37%, 1) but especially those of the far left (44%, 21). In this category, he is at the same level as Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The possibility of a return?

The candidate for Reconquest! in the European elections is experiencing a significant drop in the barometer, reflecting the tensions within Éric Zemmour's movement. Turbulence and strategic divisions are felt on the right (30%, - 2) and especially on the far right (65%, - 3). The possibility of failure?