Europeans: the RN widens the gap with the presidential majority

Will the 2024 European elections look like those of 2019? They could well have the appearance of a return match between the National Rally and Renaissance, which then finished neck and neck at the polls. The difference is that Jordan Bardella seems to be widening the gap this time, as revealed in our latest Ifop-Fiducial survey for Le Figaro and Sud Radio. Eight months before the European elections, which will take place in June 2024, the RN list would soar to 28% of voting intentions, distancing its Macronist opponent by 8 points. A breakthrough that Marine Le Pen's party had never experienced, already leading the last European election with 23.4% of the vote. The presidential party would cap at 20%, regardless of who is leading the party. list chosen from the two names circulating: Stéphane Séjourné, boss of Renaissance, and Thierry Breton, European Commissioner for the Internal Market. “In these two options, the majority holds up in this election. It’s a vote of partisan brand, more than a vote of incarnation,” analyzes the general director of Ifop, Frédéric Dabi. Regardless of the identity of the leader, Renaissance and its allies would secure the vote of more than a third (34%) of retirees. Neither would, however, succeed in attracting that of the working classes, who would vote massively (39%) for the RN.

In his flight, Jordan Bardella also crushes the match on the right, where his competitors are struggling to get close to the 10% mark. At Les Républicains, we first want to limit the damage by doing at least as much as the 8.48% in 2019. The list led by MEP François-Xavier Bellamy - who has not yet been invested by the party - would remain, as desired, around 8%. And this, without any voices being heard at Reconquête! and its head of list, Marion Maréchal. The candidacy of Marine Le Pen's niece would garner 6% of voting intentions, depriving her of the much-hoped-for duel with Jordan Bardella. Especially since the boss of the RN manages to secure the vote of 42% of Éric Zemmour's voters in the 2022 presidential election. “Marion Maréchal had gone under the radar of the French. For now, his hope is to bring back an RN electorate into the fold of Reconquête! is doomed to failure,” explains Frédéric Dabi.

On the left, where the horizon of a common list is not current, the three main formations of the Nupes (LFI, PS and EELV) are held in a pocket handkerchief. But without any crossing the 10% threshold either. “The disunited left is at a weakening level. She does not appear in a position to disturb the duel between the RN and Renaissance,” comments Frédéric Dabi. Determined not to let go of the union affair, La France insoumise (LFI) has not yet renewed its former head of the list, Manon Aubry, whose candidacy is no secret. A list led by the MEP would garner 9% of voting intentions, the highest score on the left. But Insoumise would only succeed in retaining between 40% and 42% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's voters in 2022. Some of them (20%) would even turn to the socialists, including the PS-Place publique list by Raphaël Glucksmann would also peak at 9%.

The Greens, who were the first to turn their backs on the advances of their Insoumis allies, are struggling to repeat the feat of 2019. By collecting 13.5% of the votes, they had established themselves as the leading political force on the left , driven by the renewed interest in environmental issues on a European scale. This time, the candidacy of MEP Marie Toussaint would stagnate between 8% and 9% of voting intentions.

Not really excited by the desire for union, the communists also launched themselves very early in the race for the European elections by designating Léon Deffontaines as leader. Although lagging behind the other left-wing parties, the list led by the former boss of the Young Communists would pass the fateful milestone of 5% - allowing him to send a MEP to Strasbourg.