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Brexit-defeat : May become a hostage to the Brexiteers

The British head of government, Theresa May has failed. As in the case of the last decisive vote in the lower house in January, a large majority among the members of the EU the exit from the contract, denied the consent. The humiliation was for May, although not quite as bad as two months ago. But the basic Problem of the Prime Minister, there is nothing to quibble about: they do not manage to convince the party that a consent to the unpopular Deal with the EU is still better than an extension of the Brexit period with unüberschaubarem output.

applies A tough Brexit in the short term, as unlikely

That any such extension, the scheduled termination date, on 29. March,, after may's defeat is now likely to be the next act in the Brexit-Drama. Even if the worst of all options – namely a hard-Brexit – is at the same time the most are also the most unlikely, would be a Brexit-renewal but also no real reason for calming. The political uncertainty would remain, namely, during an extension period.

Until Further notice, is in the lower house and no majority for any Option – a close connection to the EU, a tough break with the community, or in a second Referendum in sight. And at the end of the extension period, which must be approved by the EU, would be again the risk of unregulated Brexit in the room.

At first glance, May have lost the vote, because it was unable to convince the deputies of an additional Last-Minute agreement with EU Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker. Even if she summoned the members of Parliament before the vote, the progress of the agreement, to acknowledge, was attacking the scepticism of many Conservative hands: they fear that the UK will be detained forever in a customs Union with the EU.

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However, it is only superficial to the legal question of whether the UK remains against its own will in the EU customs Union prisoner. Rather, it May have become – in order to stay in the picture – in the course of the Brexit negotiations more and more a prisoner of the Tory-Brexiteers. You have to put the Prime Minister in front of the impossible task, shortly before the planned exit date, the exit agreement unlace again.

It can not engage in the EU. Otherwise, it would risk the community, that in the former civil war region in the North of the Irish island punch trees to be built. Therefore, May it reached in the case of Juncker-only the vague concession that both sides want to search for until the end of 2020 for Alternatives to the current Northern Ireland scheme. More the Commission could not offer the President, especially out of consideration for the EU member Ireland.

London-with great subtlety-powered debate, the question is, what are the legal binding effect of the recent assurances from the EU, but should not mislead one: The real Drama at the Brexit is not on the border of Northern Ireland but within the Tory party. The fate of the Brexit negotiations is in the hands of a government party, the threatens in the dispute over the future relationship with the EU to break.

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Ingo Salmen

Mays strategy, the two bearings is not always in your party with a new angle on trains to satisfy, but. In the case of the recent vote in the house of your cardinal has an error in about one and a half years of Brexit negotiations avenged – the lack of involvement of the Labour Opposition. May had brought to the party by Jeremy Corbyn on time in the boat, then today would probably be more clear where the UK is taxes – namely, in the direction of a customs Union with the EU. Still, it is not too late for May, to correct your error.

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