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Forskarscenario: So Sweden can be zero carbon 2045

2045 succeed Sweden as the first country in the world to stop using fossil fuels. Only five years later achieves the rest of the world nettonollutsläpp of greenhouse gases.

to celebrate the success inaugurates the Swedish government in the year 2053 the museum Fossils, whose first exhibition, ”the Carbon ruins the” look back on the fossil fuel age. The fossil fuel era lasted 1849-2049 and was characterised by a world economy driven by fossil fuels – something that created the climate change and environmental degradation. But through technological innovations and political decisions, mankind has managed to limit the warming, and many of its dire consequences.

this is the science fiction-inspired starting point for the small exhibition ”the Carbon ruins” which is now open in Lund, sweden. But the ambition is that Sweden should be zero carbon by the year 2045 is not a science fiction fantasy, but based in a parliamentary resolution 2017, adopted with broad political majority. After 2045, the emissions will be zero.

the Project team behind the exhibition ”the Carbon ruins”, as seen through the glass globe over the world's last served burgers 2038. From left: Sylvia Lysko (department of Political science, Lund university), Roger Hildingsson (department of Political science, LU), Caroline Mårtensson (artist), Ludwig Bengtsson, Sonesson (Hållbarhetsforum, LU) and Johannes Stripple (department of Political science, LU). Alexandra Nikoleris (Environment and energy systems, LU) is not in the picture. Photo: Anders Hansson

produced by a multidisciplinary core team of six people connected to Lund university. Through workshops with researchers and industry in the steel, agriculture, plastics, energy and transport, they have developed a scenario of how Sweden's conversion would be able to go to.

– We start from the goal is located, to Sweden to be zero carbon and climate-neutral in 2045. In this way, this exhibition is absolutely not radical, but only in line with the normal policy decisions and plans, " says Johannes Stripple, associate professor and researcher in political science and the initiator of the ”Carbon ruins”.

främmandegöra it ingrained in our time, objects that in the year 2019, be considered as casual uncontroversial despite the fact that they are problematic. Things of steel, concrete and plastic. On utställningsborden among other things, a reinforced betongklump, some pieces of asphalt and a hamburger under a glass cover. A postcard from a ski resort and a couple of frequent flyer cards are also included in the exhibition that is currently housed on a small area inside the entrance to the university building Eden.

In a box on a patinated träbyrå is a roll of artificial turf. Infoskylten produce this staple in the modern föreningssverige as a historical curiosity:

”’It is such a hassle to cut the grass’, was heard the homeowner and football clubs, shouting in the streets - vips so was born the artificial turf, which made the lawnmower obsolete! The joy was however short-lived. Slowly but surely weathered oljegräset away and polluted the seas, lakes and the hall of fotbollsfamiljer”.

– We look back at the object that was dominant during the fossileran. We want to bring some sort of nostalgia and recognition, but also problematize some of the things that are not discussed so much. For example, it is not so many today who talk about that lego is oil-based, " says Ludwig Bengtsson, communicator at Hållbarhetsforum, and points to a small platform built in lego, which stands on one of the utställningsborden.

Johannes Stripple in front of the fictional book cover of ”Miss Smillas memories of the snow”, written by the Danish writer Peter Low, released 2053. Photo: Anders Hansson

" the Feeling of to visit what an historic museum. A child may ask: ”Dad, was it really like this? Is it true that you had plastic on the pitch? You knew well that there was oil in it?” Personally, I would be 80 years old and perhaps marvel at that the conversion on the 2010's was so dramatized, dystopian and politically-charged, " says Johannes Stripple.

– Perhaps in some areas. We highlight, for example, produce metals that we believe that there can be conflict around, and certain things that must be given up can surely feel painful. At the same time has fjärrvärmeomställningen in Sweden have already gone from 98 per cent of the fossil energy in 1975 to 5 percent in the day, and there is no one who has suffered from it. Many conversions is not noticeable, but becomes a bit like Malmö's slogans ”It should be easy to do the right thing”, he continues.

His colleague, Alexandra Nikoleris, which is a post-doc within the project ”Climaginaries” at Lund university and has a background in engineering physics, believe that it will require sacrifices from some:

" But it is not certain that all perceive it as sacrifice. Myself, I fly not, and is a vegetarian, but I don't see it anymore as a sacrifice. However, it will certainly look different for different individuals and groups, says Alexandra Nikoleris.

the transition go to in concrete terms? The public discussion has, so far, there has been a major focus on the lifestyle changes that the individual can do, for example, as regards food, holidays, pendlingsfordon and prylkonsumtion. But a large part of the world's carbon dioxide emissions come from the industrial, infrastructure and construction sector, which is even harder to affect with consumer power. In Sweden, the accounting industry for approximately 30 per cent of the emissions. Only the steel industry for the 10 per cent.

– It is quite invisible because the output is not as close to us as the final consumer. The steel is like rebar in concrete, or in other ways in the buildings. It is certainly material that we see every day, but we don't interact with them in the same way as when we step into a car, " says Alexandra Nikoleris.

In Sweden, examines the industriprojektet Hybrit the potential to make zero carbon steel, but the time when production can be scaled up is still far in the future. When researchers at Lund university, based on it, they will submit to that equation do not go together. One can speculate about the political-decided rationing is needed in a transitional period, at least between 2025 and 2035, says Johannes Stripple:

we have laborerat with in the exhibition is that during the transition period may give priority to the stålanvändning where it is really needed, for example, in railways, bridges or other critical structures, as high house, " adds Alexandra Nikoleris.

the scenario for a zero carbon Sweden as ”the Carbon ruins” presents, closes the last of the Swedish blast furnace for production of iron and steel with coke in the year 2042. Already in 2025, the EU is taking away subsidies for large-scale animal husbandry, in spite of violent protests from the farmers who are blocking the Brussels with tractors. 2028 prohibits the advertising of klimatskadlig and unhealthy food.

by 2030, prohibits the sale of gasoline vehicles in Sweden and the EU. At the same time, the production of bioasfalt with lignin as a binder drawn in time. 2038 is served the world's last snabbmatsburgare and 2046, the final, flying utrikeskorrespondenten schooled to nätreporter with onlineintervjun as their primary method.

According to the scenario, the Swedish urban centres in the year 2049 has become pedestrian, with separate files for pedestrians, cyclists and wheelchair users. Outside of any urban center, there are parking spaces for electric cars where the bike rental is offered, with or without electricity. As a consequence of the fact that people are more and eat healthier food has public health improved dramatically, according to the ”Carbon ruins”scenario.

– the Purpose of the exhibition is not to predict what must happen or what will happen, but to create stories around things that could possibly occur in case the target if nettonollutsläpp to be achieved globally. This is to create a dialogue around what is desirable and not, " stresses Alexandra Nikoleris.

A piece of coal. Needed, inter alia, in the production of nylon stockings, according to a story in ”the Carbon ruins” will be one of the synthetic garments which will disappear in the future. Photo: Anders Hansson

today takes the greatest place in the debate about a sustainable society – the self-driven, electric-powered car – have no guaranteed place in the Lundaforskarnas vision of the future.

– To build a car, even if it is self-driven and electrically powered, takes a lot of energy and materials space, "says Ludwig Bengtsson, and Johannes Stripple develops:

" None of the scientists we worked with is jätteförtjusta in the self-driven vehicle. Even if they go with the 20-inch distance, they take up a lot of space in the public space compared with public transport. But it says something about the car's status is such an important projection for the future of society.

Read more: Sharp and rapid actions required to reach the climate goals

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