Inflation: will the drought lead to higher food prices?

Red alert on fruit and vegetable crops: for the past few days, the "gardens of Europe", Spain and Morocco, are currently experiencing unusual heat peaks with 38 degrees in Catalonia or 40 degrees in Rabat. These countries, major producers exporting their foodstuffs throughout Europe, are experiencing dry soils and a lack of rain which worries farmers and the authorities. "The planting of summer crops has begun, with serious concerns about the future availability of water for irrigation, given the low quantity of reservoirs", underlined for its part on April 28 the European Commission.

In addition to concerns about the water supply and the survival of the plants, experts are sounding the alarm about the consequences of the drought which is crushing these countries. With, implicitly, the fear of “heatflation” – a rise in prices linked to heat – which would come on top of food inflation which is already reaching record levels.

Like many of its neighbours, France is dependent on its southern neighbors for its supply of fruit and vegetables. France is thus the third largest importer of tomatoes in the world, importing 507,000 tonnes in 2020. The vast majority of them come from Morocco, with 350,000 tonnes, then from Spain, with 100,000 tonnes, according to an information report from the Senate. , published in September 2022. However, production limited by drought is likely to cause shortages, driving up prices.

“If the drought phenomenon continues, the supply in the territory will be affected, underlines Laurent Grandin, president of the Interprofession of fresh fruits and vegetables. Concerning Spain, the water deficit should affect sensitive varieties, especially market gardening”. In other words, vegetables - including "salads, melons and cabbages" - could be more affected by a price increase. For these products that require large quantities of water, we must therefore expect “stalls on the shelves”.

However, France will manage to take over on some productions, such as “courgettes, tomatoes and strawberries”, tempers the representative. These crops can indeed be grown in greenhouses and are easier to irrigate with water. Stone fruits could also fall through the cracks of the drought. “Last year, at the same time, we had frost, which is not the case this year, notes Laurent Grandin. Fruit production could therefore be higher”. But these forecasts hang by a thread, recalls the president of Interfel: “It can change quite quickly depending on the precipitation to come, we will observe very carefully what is happening in Spain. If temperatures continue to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the season, the situation could become tense.

The next few weeks will depend above all “on the anticipation of the drought by the producers, judge Carina Furusho Percot. We have already known since this winter that the water tables are very low, so farmers have been able to maximize their water storage and choose the species or variety that is the most tolerant to water stress", specifies the doctor in hydrology and engineer from research at Inrae. However, if last summer was very dry, “the water tables were not as low as today”. The weather for the coming months therefore promises to be crucial, both for producers' incomes and for consumers' wallets.