Fuels: prices have fallen since the implementation of “cost price” operations

The grip is loosening slightly for French motorists. Prices at the pump are finally seeing a drop, while the summer saw a surge in prices of up to twenty cents per liter for diesel, according to calculations by Fig Data, carried out using public data from the ministry. of the Energy Transition. This good news, however, comes in a tense context, with inflation at 4.8% over one year and the outbreak of the conflict between Hamas and Israel which could quickly change the situation.

It is for diesel that the drop is least marked, a liter costs on average 1.898 euros, or 5 cents less compared to mid-September. Gasoline is experiencing a more spectacular decline. E10 now costs 1.862 euros per liter, which is almost 10 cents less than three weeks ago. A similar trend for unleaded 98, which has largely fallen below the fateful two-euro mark (1.949) this week. With the notable exception of diesel, these amounts are close to those of last spring.

As a reminder, since March 1 and until the end of 2023, the prices of diesel and gasoline are capped at 1.99 euros at TotalEnergies group stations. A gesture made at the request of the government. The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, also asked the oil company to extend the discount “beyond December 31”. A request accepted by the company “as long as prices remain high”. On the mass distribution side, several brands have announced sales operations at cost price, which has a rather small impact because the margins hardly exceed one to two cents, according to the sector's unions.

These actions come after the failure to authorize “selling at a loss”. The executive wanted the stations to be able to sell fuel below its purchase price but encountered a clear refusal from major retailers. In the end, the government preferred to communicate on “nearly 120,000 operations” at cost price until the end of December.

This decline occurs in a complex international context. The price of a barrel of Brent skyrocketed and even reached an annual record three weeks ago, at $96.5 at close. Blame it on the reduction in Saudi and Russian production. Riyadh must in particular reduce its daily output by one million barrels until the end of 2023 while Moscow has promised to deprive the market of 300,000 barrels per day during the last three months of the year. The Russian announcement of a restriction on diesel exports did not help. But fears about demand and the considerable increase in gasoline stocks subsequently led to a significant drop in prices. This was without counting on the resumption of the conflict between Hamas and Israel, which has since caused a new upward movement.