The price of housing will rise more than 10% until 2025 in eleven provinces

Two factors of admittedly low predictability have occurred since 2020: a global pandemic and a war that, 500 days after its outbreak, seems as far from over as then. These are two issues that have had consequences in all areas of society, and of course housing has not escaped their influence. Daughter of the first unforeseeable event, Covid, there was a great demand to buy a home after confinement, due to the accumulated savings. Son of the second event, Russia's war in Ukraine, is the slowdown in the sale of housing. While the market has fluctuated to one side and the other, prices have only had one reaction: grow out of control.

Well, after this perfect storm, comes a necessary calm. This is what the Euroval appraiser predicts, which has produced a report with price growth forecasts for the period between the end of last year and the end of 2025. The result is that, on a national average, housing will grow by 6% in this three-year journey, a contained advance if we take into account what we have come from. These estimates, according to the report, "would be in line with the moderate evolution that, since the last quarter of 2022, residential prices have been showing in our country."

Not only that, but we could also talk about eleven provinces experiencing a rise above 10% in that period. They are, in this order, Guadalajara (16.6%) Toledo (15.7%), Huelva (14.4%), Ávila (13.6%), Segovia (13.2%), Zaragoza (11.4%), %), Cádiz (11.2%), Tarragona (10.9%), Valencia (10.5%), Burgos (10.2%) and Girona (10.1%).

In them, with the exception of Zaragoza and Valencia, there are no particularly determining provinces for the future of Spanish housing. You have to go down a little further to find one of the provinces that set the pace for real estate. Thus, the Balearic Islands will grow by 9.5%; Seville, 9.3%; Malaga, 8.5%; Alicante, 7.1%; Madrid, 5.3%; and Barcelona, ​​3%. These last two and their very slight growth, if one takes into account that they are accumulated over three years, are the best example of the slowdown in the real estate market.

Finally, the appraiser points out that there are only three that will drop in price in the next three years: Palencia, 3.7%; Soria, 3.1%; and Zamora, 2.1%.

Despite the increases that prices will experience in this three-year period, added to the strong increases experienced in the two years after the pandemic, the truth is that housing still has a long way to go to reach the prices per square meter registered shortly after from the bursting of the real estate bubble in 2007. In a few years, they will go from 1,706 euros per square meter at the end of 2022 to 1,809 at the end of 2025. The record is set in the fourth quarter of 2008, when they reached 1,990 euros per square meter, after 15 years of vertigo: between 1995, when it was at 686 euros, and that moment, prices multiplied by three.

By the end of 2025, the first places in the list of most expensive provinces to buy a home will be as follows: Comunidad de Madrid, with 2,923 euros per square meter; Guipúzcoa, with 2,892; Balearic Islands, with 2,820; Barcelona, ​​with 2,557; Vizcaya, with 2,547; Álava, with 2,171 and Málaga with 2,116. It goes without saying that in the capitals the prices are much higher, but the small municipalities of the aforementioned provinces lower the average.

Bearing in mind that, as we mentioned at the beginning, the unforeseeable happened not once but twice in a row, from Euroval they indicate that these forecasts are subject to many variables: "The forecasts made can be altered by changes in the real estate market, such as the increase in the promotion of new housing over the used one or a greater demand for housing for investment. Other factors such as higher than expected increases in interest rates or a poor evolution of employment would also influence ".