Inflation moderates three tenths in November to 3.2%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the main indicator of inflation, moderates in the interannual rate to 3.2% according to the data advanced by the INE for November, which will not be confirmed until next December 14, in a context previous price stabilization in the last quarter of the year.

This interannual rate anticipates an increase in pensions in 2024 of 3.8%, once the November data is published with which the revaluation of the payroll of retirees and pensioners is set for next year.

Inflation is once again registering declines after having remained anchored at 3.5% for the last two months and falls to its lowest level since August (2.6%). Last month it already stabilized at 3.5%, the same percentage with which September closed, driven upward by electricity and downward by fuel, but with food inflation still anchored at 9.5. %.

This month, the indicator has been fundamentally lowered by the lower prices of fuel and tourist packages, whose prices fell more sharply than a year ago, while food prices rose much less than they did a year ago. Food prices moderate in the penultimate month of the year, giving consumers a break in their pockets before the Christmas holidays.

The underlying inflation rate - which does not take into account unprocessed food or energy products - falls seven tenths to 4.5%, seven tenths less than the previous month, at its lowest since April 2022 and 1.3 points away from the General CPI.

Regarding the evolution of prices in an inter-monthly rate (what things cost in November compared to October), the five-month upward streak ends and it also moderates, in line with the general CPI, four tenths, the largest drop since September 2022.

The annual variation of the leading indicator of harmonized inflation (HICP) used to compile international statistics, mainly Eurostat, is also 3.2%. For its part, the estimated monthly variation of the IPCA was -0.6%.

"The advance CPI data for November is very good news. General inflation drops three tenths to 3.2%, helped by electricity, fuel and also food," the first vice president and minister highlighted in a statement. of Economy, Commerce and Business, Nadia Calviño.

"Core inflation continues on a downward path to 4.5%. With this, salaries continue to gain purchasing power and Spanish companies continue to gain competitiveness by increasing their market share, even in the difficult international context," he highlighted in an assessment of the advance CPI data sent to the media.

Pedro del Pozo, director of financial investments at Mutualidad, points out in a statement that this is an excellent advance CPI data, which is not only moderated by three tenths compared to the previous data but, especially, is five tenths below what was expected. by the market.

"In other words, we have witnessed a reduction in prices in the month of November, when the analyst consensus predicted a slight rebound. In a similar vein, the underlying CPI also falls sharply (seven tenths), in this case above than initially estimated by the market (reduction of two tenths). The reading of these data is very positive and would be aligned with a general moderation of price increases, even taking into account a complex and highly volatile environment, for example, in what refers to energy."

"These scales, if they constitute the European aggregate trend, could mean a change of bias in the ECB's messages for the last meeting of the year, on December 14, in the sense of inferring a more lax monetary policy in terms of rates of interest and, probably, somewhat more attentive to the evolution of economic activity".