Inflation moderates in November to 3.2% and food costs are reduced to 9%

Inflation is moderating as it heads towards the end of the year to its lowest levels since August (2.6%) after being anchored at 3.5% for the two preceding months: last month it already stabilized at this percentage, the same as in September, driven up for electricity and down for fuel, but with food inflation still anchored at 9.5%.

This month, the lower prices of fuel and tourist packages have also pushed the indicator down, the prices of which fell more sharply than a year ago, while food prices rose much less than they did a year ago. Food prices moderate in the penultimate month of 2023, giving a break to consumers' pockets with Christmas approaching. In November, the increase in food prices was reduced by five tenths specifically, to 9%, falling by double digits for the second month in a row in a year and a half. What is falling the most are bread and cereals, dairy products and eggs, compared to the intense increases in November 2022, and meat, which is rising but much less than a year ago.

In addition to the prices of the shopping basket, the cost of transportation was essential to bring the indicator down last month, leaving its rate flat at 0.0%, almost a point and a half below that of the last month, as the prices of fuels and lubricants for personal vehicles fall more than they did in November 2022. The leisure and culture sector, with a rate of 2.5%, is almost a point and a half lower than the from the previous month because tourist packages become cheaper than a year ago on the same dates.

The housing group (expenses associated with housing, not the price of housing itself, whose main component is the electricity bill), increases its variation by two points, up to -5.7%, a behavior that is due to the fact that Electricity prices fall less than in November 2022.

By territory, inflation decreased in November compared to October in 13 of the 17 autonomous communities, increased only in one (Aragón, 0.2 points), and remained the same in the remaining three. The greatest decreases occur in Murcia, Cantabria and the Canary Islands, of 0.5 points.

It is also confirmed that the underlying inflation rate, which excludes the evolution of the prices of energy and unprocessed products from the calculations, falls seven tenths to 4.5% and the minimum of April 2022, and remains at 1 .3 points away from the general indicator.

The Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP), which is used as a reference to prepare international comparative statistics, mainly Eurostat, places its annual rate at 3.3%, two tenths less.

The CEOE employers' association expects that inflation will continue to moderate during the coming months and throughout next year except for specific spikes. "It is expected that in 2023 the average inflation rate will be around 3.5%, closing the year a few tenths above 3%", while for 2024 the forecasts point to more contained inflation, mainly due to the deceleration of the underlying, explains the employers.

In any case, they warn that next year the evolution of inflation will be conditioned by the withdrawal of the measures implemented by the Government to mitigate the effects on inflation, such as transport aid or VAT on food. . In this context, the CEOE highlights the importance of the agreement reached by social agents to establish salary increases during the period 2023-2025, since "it generates confidence and contributes to avoiding an inflationary spiral."