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Ifo Institute : U.S. special duties could German car exports cut in half almost

US President Donald Trump could meet, according to the Munich-based ifo Institute, the German car maker by special duties on cars sensitive. The United States should increase the import duties permanently by 25 percent, could halve the German car exports to the United States in the long term, such as from calculations of the Institute. This would also have a noticeable effect on the total exports: "These duties would reduce the total car exports from Germany to 7.7 percent, which would correspond to a value of 18.4 billion euros", says ifo-expert Gabriel Felbermayr.

exports in other countries and sectors could mitigate this effect somewhat, there remain, however, in the case of a decrease of the total German exports to 11.6 billion euros, Felbermayr.

Meanwhile, a decision on possible customs duties is getting closer. On Sunday, the deadline for a decision by the US Department of Commerce ends about whether the Import of cars and supply the national security of the country affected. Should this be the case, could Trump are within 90 days about whether or not he wants to charge special duties. Last special were brought to customs duties in the amount of 25 percent into the conversation. This Trump wants to reduce the American trade deficit and Jobs in the United States.

when exactly is the decision of the Ministry is public, it is so far unclear - next Monday is a holiday in the United States. The Ministry would not comment in advance of the decision.

Should take Trump seriously, this is likely to reduce, according to Felbermayr, the value added of the German car industry of around five percent, or around seven billion euros. Within the EU, about 60 percent of the damage to the economy would account for the force of the Federal Republic of Germany. The value added in the U.S. auto industry is expected to increase by around 25 billion euros.

The US Ambassador to the EU, Gordon Sondland, defended the possible duties. This is the only way to bring the Europeans in talks on free trade. "The Europeans are only willing to negotiate with us, because the car duties threaten," said Sondland of the "economic week". "In these topics, it's a lot of money. It looks as if only the print medium to work.“

in December, a Delegation from the German car was made Manager of VW, Daimler and BMW, Trump, to him special duties to dissuade - but how much is this brought, remains unclear.

The German car industry warns of foreclosure, and refers to the importance of the German automotive manufacturers and component suppliers for the US labour market. "2018, approximately 118,000 employees in their works were directly employed, around 8,000 more than the previous year," from the German Association of the automotive industry (VDA). "While we have 2018 produces around 750,000 vehicles in the German plants that were only exported a total of 470,000 new cars from Germany to the United States."

there Would be no counter-reaction by other countries, could benefit US in the long term of special tariffs significantly, says Felbermayr. "Porsche, Audi, BMW, Mercedes & Co would be reinforced to produce in the United States and the customs duties." Who export to the USA, had to reduce the prices. In addition, the United States would rake in billion of customs revenue. The only Problem is: "against customs duties that make a mess of everything."

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EY-study, the U.S. duties could be car builders up to 5 billion costs

And that could be the hook to Trumps account. The previously imposed special duties on steel and aluminum, the EU had to respond with import barriers to U.S. products - such as Whiskey. And here are the consequences: already, The Whiskey exports from the United States in the EU have declined, according to the US industry Association The Distilled Spirits Council recently. This, however, is comparatively small sums. To not want a possible reaction to US-car duties for the comment on the EU Commission for the time being. (dpa)

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