War in Ukraine: kyiv installs a bridgehead on the Dnieper

The Dnieper, which serves as a border between the occupied territories and the rest of Ukraine, is the subject of intense fighting. “All attempts by the Ukrainian armed forces to carry out a landing operation in the direction of Kherson [South, Editor’s note] have failed,” said Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister, on Tuesday. Ukrainian units, especially marine infantry, “succeeded in driving the Russians out of their positions on the left bank of the river,” claimed the Kiev command on Facebook. According to him, “violent fighting” and “sabotage, raid and reconnaissance operations” allowed the establishment of “several bridgeheads”.

A welcome success after the failure of the summer counter-offensive, launched at the beginning of June. General Valery Zalouzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, frankly admitted to being in “an impasse” on November 1, to The Economist. The advance of Kiev's troops would vary from “3 to 8 km, depending on the specificities, geography and topography of the left bank,” explained an army spokesperson this Sunday.

Last fall, the Ukrainian army recaptured, after fierce fighting, the city of Kherson and its region on the right bank of the Dnieper, forcing the Russians to retreat. In retaliation, the latter are suspected of having exploded the Kakhovka dam in June 2023, creating floods and a mechanical drop in the river level. These swamps, in the middle of the river, are by nature difficult to pass through. Ukrainian special forces, as well as marine troops, have until now been carrying out lightning strike operations on the river and on the opposing bank. However, they withdrew each time. The permanent installation of troops therefore constitutes a notable novelty. They would represent “a company and a half”, according to Vladimir Saldo, leader of the occupied part of the oblast (editor’s note) of Kherson, near the village of Krynky. “They have a few vehicles but overall remain very light. They are above all protected by their artillery which remains on the other side of the river,” notes military historian and former colonel of the marine troops Michel Goya, quoted by AFP.

“The Russians are “holding the top” (dry). But the Ukrainians are approaching the line and controlling a large part of the “intermediate” zone,” Stéphane Audrand, international risk consultant, analyzed on X. The kyiv troops do not benefit from a tactical advantage which would allow them an easy crossing. Especially since such a crossing would require, to transport armored vehicles and artillery, a floating bridge or banks. An extremely risky operation. It would also take place under the watchful eyes of Russian drones and artillery. France provided “motorized floating bridges”, but the quantity of which is unknown. A massive and rapid crossing would also require a “hard” bridge. Such crossing capacities would be necessary to move heavy equipment and logistics. If we want to advance several tens of kilometers in depth, we must also advance our artillery otherwise we find ourselves cut off from all support,” remarks Michel Goya.

If such an operation were nevertheless successful, it would allow Ukrainian troops to open a new front, after that of Robotyne to the south of Zaporizhia, in the center of the country. This is undoubtedly kyiv's ambition: to force the Russians to concentrate in several places to tire them out. The battle of the Dnieper "maintains the pressure on the Russians, who are forced to shift part of their reserves to the Dnieper, to the detriment of other sectors of the front", observes the former French colonel who judges overall that the operation Ukrainian is “quite limited, quite symbolic”, but that it “allows small victories to be declared after the failure of the main offensive”. Proof that Moscow nevertheless takes this threat seriously, the Russian commander who operates in the Dnieper zone has been replaced.