America could well be heading towards a rematch of the duel which pitted Democratic President Joe Biden against his Republican predecessor Donald Trump in 2020. Joe Biden's candidacy for his own succession is no longer in doubt, and Donald Trump, despite a busy judicial agenda, crushes his main rivals in the Republican primary in the opinion polls.
The pollsters are therefore mainly questioning, a little over a year before the election, the result of a Trump versus Biden duel. In 2020, the latter won with 51.3% of the votes against 46.9% for the former Republican president. But, according to an investigation carried out for the Washington Post and ABC News, Donald Trump could win the match this time with 10 points ahead of Joe Biden by winning 52% of the votes against 42%.
Already in the spring, a poll carried out for these two media predicted a six-point lead for the former president with 49% of the votes against 43%. The two surveys therefore give results that are particularly favorable to Donald Trump who did not succeed, in 2020, but also in 2016 with 46.1%, in winning the “popular vote”. During his election in 2016, the former head of state was in fact elected in favor of a majority of voters without having a majority of the votes.
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In detail, the survey suggests that 62% of men could vote for Trump against 32% for Joe Biden, but also that the Republican candidate could win the vote of those under 35 with 20 points more than his rival. “Other recent polls show that Joe Biden could win those under 35 with a six to 18 point lead,” details the Washington Post in its own presentation of the results, calling for caution.
“The significant margin of Mr. Trump's lead in this poll [is] in contradiction with other public polls which show that the general elections are taking place in a situation of quasi-parity”, notes the American daily in his introduction by suggesting that it is "probably an anomaly". A previous survey carried out by the British pollster Yougov for CBS News indicated, for example, a victory for Trump at 50%, one point above his Democratic rival.
In any case, the reasons for a negative perception of Joe Biden influencing the vote in favor of Donald Trump remain consistent with other opinion surveys. Thus, it is the economic policy of the Democratic president which is largely rejected (at 64%) while only 30% of respondents approve of it. On migration issues, a large majority of Americans (62%) also judge Joe Biden's record negatively.
The current American head of state only receives the overall approval of 36% of respondents compared to 56% disapproval. And 74% believe that Biden is too old to serve another term (compared to 50% for Trump). Finally, 48% of those questioned, or almost the majority, believe that the two men are too old to present themselves.