The Israeli government divided on the extent of its response after Iran's direct attack on its territory

In Tel Aviv

“Ultimately will the IDF strike in Iran or not?”: this question was launched on Monday almost in the form of a joke by Israeli army radio without a clear answer being given. The War Cabinet met on Monday for the second time since the Iranian missile and drone attack to resolve this question: a difficult mission as Israeli leaders are divided. Some officials advocate massive reprisals such as the chief of staff of the Israeli army, Herzi Halevi, who on Monday promised a “response” to a clear aggression, if only to restore the power of deterrence of the Hebrew State.

Other members of the government believe that it is better to wait so as not to lose the very broad international support which contrasts sharply with the almost total diplomatic isolation in which Benyamin Netanyahu's government found itself before the Iranian attack due to its management of the war in the Gaza Strip and the humanitarian crisis plaguing the Palestinian enclave.

From the outside, pressure from Joe Biden is being felt hard. The American president pushed Benjamin Netanyahu to “think carefully” before embarking on a military adventure likely to degenerate into a regional war. France and Great Britain have also given full support to Israel, albeit with a call for moderation. In other words, Israel should be satisfied with having scored a victory by having intercepted 99% of the missiles and drones fired for the first time directly from Iranian territory on Saturday night.

The leaders of two far-right parties, Bezalel Smotrich, Minister of Finance, and Itamar Ben Gvir, Minister of National Security in charge of the police, stepped up to demand massive reprisals. “Restraint and moderation resulted in October 7, which is why Israel must reimpose its power of deterrence, including a little madness,” explained Itamar Ben Gvir. Army officials, according to media reports, are also in favor of a full-blown attack on Iran. But as Nadav Eyal points out in the daily Yedioth Ahronoth, military intelligence, which was taken completely by surprise on October 7 during the massacres committed by Hamas in southern Israel, once again made an error of assessment in failing to anticipate the violence of Iran's unprecedented response to the targeted killing of a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard official on April 1 in Damascus in an air raid attributed to Israel.

Pulled from all sides Benyamin Netanyahu seems to be hesitating. Several commentators believe that Iranian aggression offers an unexpected opportunity to form an alliance between the United States, the Gulf countries in particular Saudi Arabia and Jordan, whose air force has shot down several missiles and drones, who were heading towards Israeli territory. This coalition supported by European countries would be able to impose “crippling” sanctions to hinder the Iranian nuclear program that Benjamin Netanyahu has presented for years as the most serious threat to the very existence of the State of Israel. But the Prime Minister could still want to fight it out immediately, according to American sources.

The only certainty: on the military level, the Israeli army already has a lot to do with the continuation of the war in the Gaza Strip and the preparations for an invasion of the town of Rafah near the Egyptian border, considered to be the last bastion of Hamas, but where more than 1 million Palestinians who fled the fighting are refugees. Clashes also continue with Hezbollah, Tehran's ally, on the northern border with Lebanon.

Also read: Missile and drone attack against Israel: an Iranian military failure?

The military has also not renounced air raids in Syria against Iranian officers stationed there or deliveries of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. Tension also rose in the West Bank following the killing of a 14-year-old Israeli boy near an Israeli settlement on Friday.

In Israel, on the other hand, it is time to return to normal. All educational activities that were suspended on Sunday have resumed. Likewise, the ban on gatherings of more than a thousand people, including demonstrations for security reasons, was lifted while international air traffic suspended for seven hours on Sunday resumed.