"Madam Home Secretary, what you just said is simply wrong"

Around a million people have fled to Germany since the start of the Ukraine war. Comparable figures were last available in 2015 – at that time there was talk of a “refugee crisis”. Because more and more civilians in the Ukraine are being targeted by the Russian war of aggression, migration researcher Gerald Knaus fears an upcoming “historic winter of refugees”. Knaus was a guest on Maybrit Illner's ZDF program on Thursday evening.

The moderator discussed with her guests the question of whether Germany can cope with the new influx of refugees. In addition to Knaus, the vice-president of the CDU, Carsten Linnemann, and the mayor of Tübingen, Boris Palmer, were also in the group. Other participants were Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser (SPD), the "Spiegel" journalist Ann-Katrin Müller and the managing director of the Tafel Deutschland, Sirkka Jendis.

Linnemann criticized the citizens' allowance planned by the traffic light coalition, which is intended to replace the basic social security system Hartz IV. CDU leader Friedrich Merz described this as the "pull factor" because it would not be worthwhile for immigrants in particular to "take up a simple job" themselves. Linnemann agreed. However, there is a pull factor above all with non-Ukrainian refugees, who are currently also increasingly coming to Germany.

"We have seen that from 2015 to this day, they clearly want to go to Germany because we have the highest social standards in the world," said Linnemann. "There's nothing to talk about." Boris Palmer also agreed; in Tübingen, six years after arrival, only a quarter of 800 employable people are employed and subject to social security contributions. Even if these people fill vacancies, such as cleaning staff, they would leave after just a few weeks, he said. The incentive not to work at all is far too high.

For Interior Minister Faeser (SPD), there are completely different reasons: for too long people with a specific residence permit have had access to work made more difficult. That's exactly what the traffic light wants to change with the citizen's income and the right of residence, said Faeser. The latter is intended to make it easier for people who are tolerated in Germany in the long term to obtain a right to stay.

At this point, Linnemann tore the thread of patience: "Mrs. Federal Minister of the Interior, what you just said is simply factually wrong." Two-thirds of Syrians in Germany would still receive Hartz IV, despite a "very high recognition rate", he said. That is why he would vote "with full conviction" against the citizens' income.

He added: "I think we have to live in a country where you can say things without being put straight into the right corner." Linnemann was even clearer: "Is work actually worth nothing in Germany anymore? Ms. Illner, I'll tell you quite honestly, actually a memorial should be built for the people who go to work in Germany."

The term “pull factor” remained controversial in the group. The fact that such factors exist has been scientifically refuted, both Faeser and the journalist Müller repeated. Ukrainian refugees had much easier access to social benefits in other countries and usually came to Germany because of other family members.

Due to a European directive, Ukrainians do not have to go through the asylum procedure and are immediately entitled to social benefits such as Hartz IV. "I think it's absolutely right that they don't have to go through the process," Palmer said. "The fact that they immediately get Hartz IV is controversial." In Tübingen there are as many daycare places as there are refugee children in the city, he said. Municipalities are reaching their limits. He advocated granting lower asylum benefits to Ukrainians so as not to give the impression of wanting to fully integrate them immediately.

Linnemann also showed support for this. "At some point, the willingness to integrate will tip over," he said. One can only guarantee humanity if one does not overtax oneself as a country. Faeser disagreed. The European directive provides for "very rapid integration", for which there is still a "huge solidarity" in the population. She warned against inciting moods that could fuel violence, as the AfD did in Bautzen, Saxony. Asylum accommodation for Ukrainian refugees was set on fire there last week.

Migration researcher Knaus spoke out in favor of state subsidies for private accommodation – also at the European level. He criticized the fact that France had taken in fewer Ukrainian refugees than Baden-Württemberg and suggested a model similar to that already in place in Great Britain: Families who let refugees stay with them would receive monthly subsidies there.

The Tafel chairwoman Jendis reported that the issuing offices were reaching their limits – both by refugees and by German citizens. Already 30 percent of the boards have announced temporary stops, she said; many volunteers are now customers themselves.

She feels neglected by politics. German authorities often sent Ukrainians to the Tafel: "Of course, that suggests that we are part of the welfare state system. We are not. We support, we don't provide, that's the job of the state." With an almost breaking voice, Jendis called on politicians to enter into a conversation with the board: "At the moment you're resting on volunteering," she said.

With a view to the coming winter, migration researcher Knaus made it very clear what was in store for Europe: "Putin's goal is to bring Europeans to their knees with their fear of refugees, to divide society." Germany must not let itself be defeated, he said : "We are facing the biggest refugee catastrophe in Europe since the 1940s." One must now signal to Putin that he still has no chance. "Only a successful Ukrainian democracy is a guarantee that we won't have 15 million Ukrainians here in the next two years," said Knaus.