In Niger, the junta activates migratory pressure on Europe

A law with “harmful effects”, “attacking public freedoms”. With these terms, the military junta in Niger, in power since its coup in July, explained its decision to repeal, on September 27, a 2015 law which criminalized smugglers. In a press release read by its spokesperson on national television, the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP) argues that this law, which penalized any clandestine activity linked to migrant trafficking, “was passed under the influence of certain foreign powers (...) in flagrant contradiction with our community rules.

Europeans feared this decision. Like other juntas in the region, the CNSP began a radical divorce from its former allies as soon as it took power, first and foremost Paris, from which it demanded the departure of the armed forces. In response, Brussels – which allocated 503 million euros to Niger for the period 2021-2024 alone – announced in July the freezing of all its cooperation funds “sine die with immediate effect”. Only funds for the benefit of the populations had been maintained.

The decree signed by General Tchiani, head of the junta, which also cancels all “convictions” and “their effects” pronounced over the past 8 years in application of the 2015 law, definitively marks the break on the migration aspect. “Until then there remained a certain amount of openness, in case things were to work out. There, the military threw out the last link of cooperation, knowing that immigration is the greatest pressure for us,” confides a diplomatic source in the Sahel.

“Clearly, this is not good news for us,” agrees Serge Michailof, former director of the World Bank and director of operations of the French Development Agency (AFD). “There will be consequences, and France and Italy will be on the front line,” believes the author of Africanistan (Paperback, 2015). In fact, Niger is a hub for migrant trafficking from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe. For people coming from the Gulf of Guinea, Agadez, a large northern city and Tuareg “capital”, was until 2015 the main access point to Algeria and Libya. More than 20,000 migrants per month passed through this passage.

Around this route, an entire economic activity of “migratory services” had been built to provide housing, food and transport. So many service providers became illegal by the 2015 law, passed following the “Valletta summit”, when Niger and African countries committed to mutual cooperation against migrant smuggling. The European Commission then offered Niger significant funding for development aid, in exchange for a commitment to controlling illegal immigration flows. The president at the time Mahamadou Issoufou, satisfied with the offer, made his country the bulwark of the Union's migration policy in Africa.

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The 2015 law has immediate effect on the ground. “The migratory economy of Agadez, which supported the “border community”, and benefited the population on a small scale, was almost brought to a standstill,” explains Ali Zoubeidi, researcher in Morocco and consultant to organizations international. Before, big traffickers participated in elections and had seats in Parliament. Some mayors were involved. This entire clandestine network was dismantled by the 2015 law. Some were imprisoned, others converted to other activities.”

However, the flow of migrants has not dried up. He changes his route, taking much deadlier routes through the desert, with no water points and high risks. Rescue operations in the desert are increasing. Not to mention the explosion of internally displaced people in Niger in the face of the increasing security threat. In 2023, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) indicates that 72% of migrants passing through Agadez and Arlit are Nigeriens, 17% Nigerians, then 2% to 1% Chadians, Cameroonians, Sudanese or others. “The junta’s decision will inevitably lead to a reactivation of the Agadez road, and lead to renewed migration,” fears Serge Michailof.

Observers of politics in the Sahel also see in this act of Niamey a guarantee made towards the Tuaregs of the North, who were the first to benefit from the migratory economy. “It’s an important source of income for them. However, General Tchiani has few relations with the Tuaregs, who are no longer represented in the government, where only the Djerma, Songhai and Hausa ethnic groups are represented,” underlines Serge Michailof. “This allows us to buy back the favor of the Tuaregs,” suggests the former director of the AFD. The local media Aïr info, in northern Niger, speaks of the “relief” of the populations upon hearing the news. “In Agadez (...) since the announcement of the measure, young people welcome it and say they are ready to return to the activities they were forced to abandon 8 years ago,” reports the newspaper . The local authorities themselves were delighted, with the Agadez regional council welcoming a “very beneficial initiative for [the] region”.

The first effects of this rehabilitation of smugglers should appear “within five to six weeks” according to Ali Zoubeidi, with a flow which will “very certainly go towards Morocco, Algeria, and coming from Nigeria, Cameroon , Sudan and Eritrea,” analyzes the researcher. And a possible flight of the Nigerien population itself, exposed to a growing jihadist threat, and whose demographic growth is among the highest in the world.