EU expects early elections in Turkey

The EU expects early presidential elections in Turkey. “There are several indications that President Erdogan is likely to bring the elections forward this year, probably in the fall. That could happen in the relatively short term," it said in unanimous circles in the European External Action Service (EEAS) and EU diplomats. So far, the next presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for mid-June 2023.

An important reason given for the early election date was that the ailing Turkish economy could recover in the short term following this summer's tourism income and this could improve the mood of the population. According to the Turkish statistical office, between April and June alone, 8.7 billion dollars were taken in, an increase of 190 percent compared to the same period last year.

On the other hand, the high energy prices due to the unfavorable exchange rate would have a negative impact on consumers and thus the voters, especially in the winter months. According to diplomatic circles, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's international activities as a mediator between the West and Russia, his threats to invade northern Syria and the renewed deployment of a gas drilling ship to the eastern Mediterranean should also be a sign that Erdogan wants to demonstrate strength to improve his position before the presidential election.

Despite the high income from tourism and increasing investments from Russia, the Turkish economy will cool down significantly this year, with growth of just over two percent expected. Many Turks hold Erdogan responsible for their persistently difficult economic situation. Confidence in the President has recently fallen significantly.

According to the latest polls, his AKP party has 27.7 percent (down 14.9 percent since the 2018 elections), while the main opposition party, CHP, has 28.1 percent. Erdogan's personal poll numbers as a presidential candidate are also bad, he is clearly behind the three possible CHP candidates.

The candidacy of the mayor of Ankara, Mamour Yavas (CHP), seems to be particularly promising. He is currently considered the most popular politician in the country. Erdogan has already been elected president twice, and only confirmed his candidacy again this summer. It is questionable how independent the elections will be, given that the AKP largely controls the press and the judiciary.