Disinformation, number one global risk compared to the climate

Even more than extreme climatic events, armed conflicts or cyberattacks, disinformation is seen as the number one global risk in the next two years. At least this is the new hierarchy of major threats established by the annual report on global risks from the World Economic Forum (WEF), organizer of the Davos Forum next week. “This is the first time that this risk is explicitly mentioned in our report,” underlines Saadia Zahidi, general director of the WEF and it goes directly to first place. This is undoubtedly linked to the fact “that a large part of the world is going to vote this year”, she adds. Around 2 billion people, more than half of the world's population of voting age, will in fact go to the polls in the next twelve months, in 70 countries including the United States, India and the United Kingdom.

Just Tuesday, an incident that occurred in the United States confirmed, if any were needed, the dangers of manipulating information. A false message appearing on the official account of the American stock market watchdog (the SEC) on the social network X (formerly Twitter) caused the price of bitcoin to suddenly jump.

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To establish the 19th edition of this risk report, published Wednesday, the World Economic Forum, in partnership with Zurich Insurance Group and insurance broker Marsh McLennan, surveyed 1,400 experts, political and business leaders. “Artificial intelligence (AI) provides new weapons for cybercriminals, there is no longer even a need to be highly intelligent” to carry out disinformation or cyberattacks, notes Carolina Klint, commercial director for Europe at Marsh McLennan .

“Advances in artificial intelligence will radically upend the risk outlook for organizations, with many struggling to respond to threats arising from information manipulation, disinformation and strategically manipulated calculations” , she adds. The leaders consulted fear that disinformation will exacerbate the polarization of societies, already fractured, politically or socially. “The fear is that one day no one will trust what they read,” worries John Scott, head of sustainability risks at Zurich Insurance Group.

According to the report, the top five global risks, over a two-year time horizon, are misinformation; extreme weather events; the polarization of societies; cyberattacks and finally armed conflicts between States. Inflation and the economic slowdown have not magically disappeared from the concerns of leaders but are relegated to 7th and 9th places respectively, with uncontrolled immigration coming in 8th place.

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When asked to consider longer-term threats (ten years), environmental risks take over: extreme weather events; irreversible shift of natural systems (rising oceans, melting of permafrost, disruption of ocean circulation, etc.); loss of biodiversity and, in fifth place, disinformation. Generally speaking, “last year, respondents were more optimistic at ten years,” notes Saadia Zahidi, general director of the WEF.

Risk perception varies from country to country. Thus, in France, experts and leaders first cite the economic slowdown, social fractures and public debt. The top three for Americans is the economic slowdown, infectious diseases and inflation while Indians, who will vote in the spring, mention disinformation, infectious diseases and illegal work.

This hierarchy of global risks “absolutely does not constitute forecasts”, insists Saadia Zahidi but must be seen “as a lever for action” in this spirit of collaboration between States, businesses, researchers and civil society that the World Economic Forum has been advocating for over half a century.