Common tanks and fighter jets for Europe - the historical plan is shaky

As a result of Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, Europe is not only facing a massive expansion of its armaments budgets, but also the question of how to proceed with the construction of combat aircraft and tanks.

A good four years after Germany and France presented the plans for a new fighter jet in the air combat system of the future (FCAS) and for a new tank system (MGCS) with a lot of hope, a sobering situation is now developing.

The relationship between Paris and Berlin, the former drivers of the two mammoth projects FCAS and MGCS, is at a low point. In addition, according to information from industry circles, cutbacks in projects from the 100 billion special budget for the Bundeswehr will have to be made due to the high inflation.

"Struggles over the distribution of the new planes, tanks and ships are emerging," says an insider who wishes to remain anonymous. The German special budget is not only intended to pay billions for nuclear-capable US F-35A fighter jets, but also to finance the FCAS and MGCS projects. Overall, the development costs of the FCAS project, funded by Germany, France and Spain, are estimated at 100 billion euros.

But there is a problem between Berlin and Paris. This not only applies to differences in energy policy, but also to various armaments projects, including a European anti-missile defense system (Sky Shield). Again and again there is speculation about an end to the FCAS system with the nuclear-capable fighter jet and as a domino effect also from the end for the MGCS tank project.

The super fighter jets and tanks for digitally networked combat scenarios should not be ready for use until 2040. But now the basic decisions are being made about the technology, the requirement profile, patents and what money is being spent on.

Now there are ambiguities between the French aircraft and armaments group Dassault and Airbus. Dassault has announced that it can build the next-generation fighter jet without Airbus, as the successor to the Eurofighter and Rafael. According to the previous concept, France should have the say over Dassault with the new fighter jet and Germany with the new tank as the successor to Leopard and Leclerc.

While there is now open speculation in a document submitted by the Federal Ministry of Defense about an end to the FCAS cooperation if there is no agreement on an equal footing, Airbus is demonstratively calm. The dispute between Airbus and Dassault has already delayed the original FCAS schedule by more than a year.

Airbus wants nothing to do with failure. On the contrary. When asked by WELT, it said: “The constructive talks between the industrial partners are ongoing. We are confident that we can initiate the next phase of the program (Demonstration Phase 1B) before the end of 2022.”

Airbus armaments board member Mike Schöllhorn recently spoke almost identically to analysts. There are contradictory signals from the industry and the companies involved. On the one hand, great irritation because the FCAS project is currently blocked, there is planning uncertainty and no new jobs are being created.

On the other hand, there is talk of a spirit of optimism. Failure would have serious consequences, they say. More time would be lost if Airbus could then perhaps alternatively link up with the British Tempest fighter jet project.

Insiders speak of the last remaining sticking points for the new fighter jet (FCAS project) and tank (MGCS). This could include the issue of arms exports. An Airbus board member recently made it clear to analysts that Europe's armaments industry is dependent on exports for the developments to be worthwhile at all. The armaments industry is a tool of defense and foreign policy.

Even if Paris and Berlin agree on all the points that are still in dispute and there is a peace agreement in the Airbus-Dassault power structure, the original schedule will no longer be tenable. It stipulated that airworthy demonstrators, i.e. a kind of pre-prototype, would be on the runway by 2026/2027. But Europe's largest armaments project is already lagging behind schedule.

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