The savings bank group: Many dark clouds in the economic skies - employment objective is no longer as certain

Finland's economic growth slowdown is now clear to brands, told reporters the savings bank recent economic outlook.Timo Vesala moved to 2017 in the near tapiola savings banks group of the new pääekonomistit. Silja Viitala

23 the regional savings banks grouping, the growth of a clear slowdown in the telling of exports and investment weak development of construction and housing trade prospects waning. Also the whole world economic growth is clearly slowing, but a new recession is not yet evident, the savings bank group cyclical review notes.

the Export has declined now for two consecutive quarters and is more than two percent lower than the beginning of the year. Also, investment declined in the two middle quarters. Machinery and equipment investment decline has, however, been going on for years and downhill has recently exacerbated. Even private consumption is the beginning of the year the level of mildly reduced.

– we now Expect gdp growth to be 2.3%, which is a clear drop from the previous (June) forecast of 2.8% growth rate, the savings bank group chief economist at the Timo Vesala said the group of cyclical data sheet.

Vesala, according to gross domestic product growth has been moderate, but especially in the third quarter growth was purely for inventory accumulation.

– the stocks of growth anticipated at times of growth picking up in the future. On the other hand, stocks may also increase, since the end of the demand cooling has gotten a surprise. Now, when the growth peak has been exceeded, the latter explanation seems more natural, Vesala estimates.

the savings bank group forecasts that total production growth will slow next year to between 1.4% and in 2020 further to 1.2%.

Labour market suction attenuates

the savings bank group, according to the economic outlook due to the weakening of the government's employment target is no longer as sure as it still half a year ago were affected. Employment growth in the most intense phase of the bypass was already in the first half of 2018, and employment will improve 2019-2020 period no longer just a little bit.

– the employment of the healing rate has been economic performance in relation to even surprisingly strong. The number of hours worked I year's growth already exceeds the gross domestic product growth. It is possible that future production growth will be sought more productivity through. This would inevitably lead to labour market suction the damping, Vesala said.

While in recent years the economy has gotten better, there is a group, according to forecasts risk of consumer the pace of blindness simultaneously increased: household debt cargo is even more bloated, the saving rate of the pressed negative and payment difficulties in the number of people increased.