The world is in the hands of a few people. Are to meet from tomorrow, Friday in Buenos Aires. The so-called Group of 20, or G20, rarely generates solutions. But it opens avenues for dialogue and, in the opposite direction, reveals the fractures most threatening for humanity. The summit, which this year presides over Argentina leans towards the latter. The trade war between the united States and China, and the unbelief of Donald Trump with regard to climate change are so threatening, that the objectives are limited to avoid slamming doors and tears. There is the risk of failure. And a failure goes beyond a spat between political leaders: sometimes it means misery and death for millions of people.
The hosts are seeking to wrap the meeting a festive atmosphere. The 2018 is celebrated in a country, Argentina, that is not for celebrations. Since January round collapse the macro and have a few dramatic levels of inflation and poverty. President Mauricio Macri was confident that the G-20 summit will adopt an aura of international statesman suitable to achieve re-election in 2019; now conforms to reach an agreement for minimum and avoid fiascoes as the level is very different, it has resulted in the failed final football between River Plate and Boca Juniors. Of time, has spent more than one hundred million dollars to organise the party and ensure (where possible) the safety.
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The “sherpas”, the technicians who traded throughout the year to achieve the preacuerdos about speaking at the summit, have been lowering their expectations. The meeting in 2017 will be held in Hamburg (Germany) concluded with a joint statement of 14 pages. This time, expect no more than four. The text could fly over with empty phrases problems as serious as the trade dispute between the united States and China (both add up to 40% of the world economy) or, even worse, the consequences Bahsine of climate change. In both issues, the disruptive element is Donald Trump. Although the European Union also seems to be assuming that the “State capitalism” in chinese, with direct subsidies or disguised to its business, it infringes the rules of the game established in treaties such as the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Tariffs), and that Beijing is acting with too much ease when it comes to respecting the intellectual property rights of others.
The undesirable character of the summit is prince Mohamed Bin Salman, strong man of the saudi regime, most responsible for the atrocious war in Yemen, and clearly involved in the kidnapping, torture and murder in Turkey of saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Will not affect the lawsuit filed against him before the argentine courts, but no one will feel a special satisfaction in the moment you shake his hand. Perhaps hold a private meeting with the president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who could help, perhaps, to reduce the tension between the two countries. The worst drink you can pass it to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin has announced that Putin (the enemy of Saudi Arabia because in the war of Syria is aligned with the regime of Bashar al-Assad and with Iran) wants to “ask” to Bin Salman “why's murder of journalists in foreign territory”.
Another guest with a spirit of bellicose is Emmanuel Macron, the president of France. Macron sucked from the beginning of his mandate to become leader of the planet for the fight against climate change. As demonstrated in the summit held in Paris two years ago. To strengthen your stature, what's better than a vigorous exchange of dialectical with Donald Trump? The president of the united States has just received a report from his own administration on global warming, which predicts a reduction of 10% in the u.s. economy. Your comment: “I don't believe it”.
Trump, the issue of climate is secondary. Even the process of containment of the nuclear arms, confronting Putin, it seems minor at this summit. The crucial thing, for him, is the trade. That is to say, China. Your attention is concentrated on the private dinner that will keep the Friday with chinese president, Xi Jinping. Both have been done already severe trade sanctions. At that dinner we will decide whether to aggravate the confrontation, which is damaging to the chinese industry and american agriculture, and slow the growth of the world economy, or begins to relax the tension.
Trump already has to hand a knock on effect: the signature, in Buenos Aires, for the renewal of the free trade agreement of North America (Nafta) between the united States, Mexico and Canada. The European Union and Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) had dreamed also signed during the summit an agreement, but that will not happen.