Erik de la Reguera: the Third time's the charm – or even a Brexitfiasko?

Up until very recently it was thought that Brexit would fall on Friday. All the brits who even occasionally looking at the news has at least once (and likely at considerably more occasions) heard Theresa May say it had been her mantra in the months:

march 29, 2019, the Uk will leave the European union.

But this can still be a decisive date – if Theresa May finally get a yes by the parliament for its utträdesavtal.

This is why:

In the last week requested the british for a deferral, and EU leaders agreed to postpone the Brexit to the 22nd of may – but only under the condition that the house vote yes to the utträdesavtalet by the end of this week.

If there would be a ' no ' again, or if no vote takes place, the EU has ruled that it is the 12 april on the new Brexitdatum.

Then the waiting is likely a ”hard” chaotic Brexit, with potentially very harmful effects for the british economy.

now want to make a third attempt to get through their utträdesavtal. Time has been set aside on Friday in the house of commons to debate a government proposal ”linked to the EU exit”.

in Order to satisfy the speaker John Bercows requirement that is not exactly the same text to be voted on last, the government has this time chosen to only add utträdesavtalet on the parliament's table – without the political declaration about the future relationship with the EU, which have previously been included in the same ”package”.

Bercow has said that he accepts this. Purely legally, it should also suffice to satisfy the EU, according to May, whose objective is that the Uk should be able to make an orderly exit from the EU on 22 may.

But it is far from certain that it will be a yes. On Wednesday evening promised the prime minister May resign (likely by this summer), just vote yes.

There have been a large number of rebellious ”brexitörer” in her party, the Tories to change the foot. But negotiations are ongoing with the government of northern ireland was to some extent due DUP, who did not allow himself to be placated.

Even if May would be able to convince the DUP and the majority of the brexitörerna, she needs also the support of a number of labour meps. And it can be easier said than done, for a yes to the agreement is now linked to the Mays departure – and a clear risk that Boris Johnson or any other radical brexitör will to power.

the Question is which labour meps who want to have it on his conscience.

now starting to get somewhat epic proportions. It is felt not only in parliament but also in the streets and squares.

At the cafes, you hear outraged discussions about the Brexit.

Mays the agreement is just an agreement to leave the EU and then continue to negotiate! How hard can it be, really? I heard a distressed man saying on Thursday.

Apparently very difficult. And with refined political officials begin to despair over the låsningarna in parliament.

in such a situation is to call an early presidential election. But recently Theresa May tried to with it – in June 2017 – the result was fatal for her: ruling party became addicted to the DUP, something that can now trap the entire agreement.

Despite this, the evidence suggests that May play with the idea of yet another election. In particular, if she thinks that it is possible to produce it as a choice between the Tories färdigförhandlade agreements and the Labour party's precise but somewhat fuzzy vision of a customs union and continued close ties to the single market.

at the same time continues to try to find a majority for a different type of Brexit. the on Wednesday evening, held eight rounds of voting in parliament on the different, alternative Brexitplaner.

the Result?

no, No, no, no, no, no, no, and no.

a Brexit maintaining a customs union, a Brexit with a new referendum as a condition, or a fully upholstered Brexit, managed to get the support of a majority of the members.

https://twitter.com/erikdelareguera/status/1111031378026602496

Many britons are deeply frustrated over this.

But: if some of the alternative plans are gradually stripped away, absent of thought been, it is not entirely impossible that it is finally going to find a way forward.

It is conceivable that parliament, in the next week, for example, can vote yes to a hypothetical Brexit, while maintaining the customs union and, subsequently, the confirmatory referendum.

But who shall be tasked to implement it? Theresa May learn not to raise their hands.