The Spanish index has been left behind by not having companies that have attracted large international investors in fifteen years marked by the financial crisis derived from the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, in September 2008, and that have moved the markets to the sound of central bank intervention. This period has been distinguished by the technological revolution, the pandemic and this year by the energy crisis derived from the war in Ukraine.
With hardly any technology, stars of the last decade (despite the weakness this year), or pharmaceuticals, the Spanish stock market, highly dependent on banks and the tourism sector, has lagged behind.
Despite the bad data of the Ibex in these fifteen years, there are companies that have managed to stand out with strong increases in this period. Ferrovial, Redeia, Inditex, Endesa, Bankinter and Enagás are revalued between 100% and 300% on the Stock Market. They are the best performing stocks that went public before 2007.
This contrasts with the weakness of large companies such as Telefónica and Santander, which have still fallen by 50% since 2007, according to Bloomberg records.
Among the leaders of this period, the ones that still have the best prospects are Inditex and Endesa, which are recommended by nearly 70% of the firms that follow these companies. The experts set their objectives at 30% above its price, in the case of Endesa and 18% in that of Inditex. "These are values that have suffered this year from headwinds such as the economic slowdown and the government's tax on electricity, but that in the coming years they can do well," says Nicolás López, from Singular Bank.
The experts also trust Ferrovial, which would have an additional route of more than 20%. The concessions sector is one that analysts like for the coming months and, in addition to Ferrovial, they point to stocks such as ACS and Sacyr as attractive.
In the financial sector, the strength of Bankinter stands out, which has registered 129% since 2007 and has ahead of it a 20% rise to 7.05 euros, which the consensus of analysts sets as its target. It held up better after the financial crisis and belongs to one of the recommended sectors for the next two years. "Without the bank, the Ibex cannot consider rising consistently, but we think that it still has a long way to go, since it has not yet begun to enjoy the advantage of positive interest rates after years at lows," says Ignacio Cantos, partner from atl Capital. Although central banks may give clues in 2023 as to when they will stop raising rates on their accounts, the increase in the price of money this year will bring greater benefits, according to Cantos, who does not expect delinquency to get out of control.
Since 2007, Sabadell and Banco Santander have been the worst performing: with falls of 73% and 50%, respectively. But experts consider that there is too much pessimism with Santander's expectations in Brazil and give it an upside potential close to 47% on the Stock Market, the highest in the sector. Sabadell would have an upward path of more than 30%, up to 1.08 euros, and for CaixaBank and BBVA they estimate an upward path of more than 20%.
Alt Capital and Singular trust the good tone of the Spanish Stock Market thanks to the support of the financial sector, which weighs close to 25.7%, and utilities, which this year have been punished. "We believe that the worst for the electric companies is behind us," adds López. The growth that Iberdrola can offer due to its international diversification and its renewable business stands out. The electricity company chaired by Ignacio Sánchez Galán has shot up 80% since November 2007 and has an upward journey ahead.
Within the energy sector, experts are cautious with Enagás and Naturgy, but trust in the path still offered by the oil company Repsol. It has risen more than 37% since 2007 and analysts set the company's target price more than 20% above its price, at 17.46 euros.
The Spanish stock market has always stood out for its high shareholder remuneration. If we include the dividends paid by the Ibex companies, the index left its record behind on February 19, 2020, at 29,439 points. Since then the drop is limited to 15%. Experts point out that the Dax, which has risen 70% since November 2007, includes shareholder remuneration in its calculation.
Among the leading values of the Euro Stoxx 50 in these 15 years by revaluation, the technological ASML stands out, which adds more than 2,200%, followed by the luxury companies Hermès, LVMH and Kering, which register between 550% and 1,800% and they continue to have the confidence of analysts. Investors have flocked to defense and technology company Safran and Airbus.
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