exactly 5,999 billion Swiss francs – as much have paid the Swiss motorists 2017 to insurance premiums. In the current year is likely to appear 6 before the comma: Some industry experts expect a decline in premium volume in the motor vehicle insurance, a minimal increase of 0.2 percent in the previous year to paint. Also in the case of Axa, with 22 percent market share the number one in Germany – are declining revenues in the insurance of cars. Whether this market will return to the segment in the foreseeable future, to growth, is at least as uncertain.
the insurance prior to a completely new situation, after the car premiums – apart from the crisis year of 2009 – for years, steadily. The annual revenues were increases from the third-party liability and accidental damage insurance in the first half of the zero years, of between 2.5 and 7 percent, so they are slipped last back to 1 to 1.5 percent.
The periods of growth according to the assessment of the Helvetia a thing of the past: "In the next three to five years is expected to decline in the premiums," says company spokesman Jonas gross Niklaus. The Allianz Suisse expects, according to its spokesman, Bernd de Wall in the worse case, with a premium no buses in the low double-digit percentage range – this, however, over a forecast period of 15 years. Since the furniture and the Baloise show, even for the less optimistic, you expect but, in the short and medium term, a stable car premium volume.
Why are the views of the insurers in such a way? As the main reason Daniel Meier, head of mobility insurance at Axa's called, "the different estimates of future claims development". There is General agreement among industry representatives that the number of accidents – especially those of serious accidents with damage to persons – in the future, go back. This is thanks to the increased use of driver assistance systems. Meier refers to studies of the Axa accident research, according to which cars with emergency braking assistance systems between 30 and 69 percent fewer rear-end collisions cause. "This development will in the medium term, lead to lower premiums in the liability area," is convinced that the Axa representative.
spare parts will be more expensive
These safety systems, however, a downside: The cost per case of damage, proceed steep to the height, because the more and more with electronics and sensors-equipped car spare parts are always more expensive. According to Figures from Zurich, Switzerland, the replacement of a windscreen with the Sensors on the average costs of 700 Swiss francs more than in the case of a conventional windscreen. In the case of a bumper, the difference is with or without sensors in the mid 1800 francs.
Patrick Bayer, head of the mobility insurance of the furniture, recalls the recent repair of a bumper, which was not equipped with a camera and a Parking assistant. Cost: about 4000 Swiss francs (the whole camera had to be replaced, although her glass was damaged). "A few years ago," says Bayer, "would have been such damage to be at about 2000 francs."
Which of the two opposite Trends – decreasing accident figures, but a higher cost per event – will shape the course of the claims expenses to be permanent is an open question. The Allianz Suisse assumed in your 15-year-view that "the compensation will go back to 7 to 16 percent," de Wall said. Therefore, the expectation of the insurer after a drastic fall in Premiums in motor vehicle business.
Bayer is in the face of such forecasts are cautious: "As the total of the invoice will look like for us in the long term, cannot yet be estimated. There are simply too many Unknowns." These include for example the unabated rising health costs. Also the Swiss insurance Association considers that it is "difficult to forecast the development in Premiums," as spokeswoman Sabine Alder says. You are, however, concerns that the market for car-saturated, insurance companies, and the competition is correspondingly intense.
As a result, decreased the average decreased premiums in the last few years. "In addition, we note," Helvetia speaker big Niklaus, "that in the market, some with high discounts." The lead part premiums were no longer to be classified as a risk. So far, the insurance companies were able to cushion the price pressure thanks to rising vehicle stocks in Switzerland to some extent. This will be possible in the future? The opinions are divided. Allianz Suisse is according to the EN Wall of the "declining number of new registrations," which will hit the premium development. Otherwise, Patrick Bayer: The furniture representative considers the slump in new registrations as a "temporary phenomenon", which was primarily attributable to the new emission measurement techniques and the associated delays in the delivery of new cars. In the next three to five years, he continues to expect a slight annual growth in the domestic car inventory.
this will be enough to make the car premium volume, out of Stagnation, seems to be a little realistic. Maybe the jump over the 6-billion-franc-mark is much more difficult, than it does from the last year's level of 5,999 billion from the appearance. (Editorial Tamedia)
Created: 20.12.2018, 21:34 PM