The exit of Britain from the EU will have for the whole of Europe have a negative impact, which is considered to be safe. But how high the financial damage will be? This has been calculated by the renowned Bertelsmann Foundation in its latest study. Accordingly, the 27 remaining EU member States would have to accept losses of 40 billion Euro annually. And also Iceland, Norway and Switzerland, which are all intertwined by agreement, has close economic ties with the EU, would feel the economic consequences.
With a hard Brexit , Switzerland would have to per year with an income loss of nearly 1.34 billion euros (currently 1.51 billion francs). This is on the tenth rank out of 31 countries. For the neighbors Italy, France and Germany, in particular, the consequences would be more serious.
most of the United Kingdom itself would be affected, but The British would lose by a hard "No-Deal-Brexit" each year 57 billion euros. Also, the Irish would have to shoulders high, a loss of income, Malta is likely to feel, however, the consequences of an exit. The study shows that the geographical proximity to the British island generally leads to a stronger Brexit-will be affected.
This is also true on a regional basis. The Bertelsmann Foundation has calculated on the Basis of the changes in the gross domestic product, how much money would be lost per head of population in some 300 regions in Europe. In London it would be in the section 2821 of the Euro. The British capital, and the continental middle regions in the South of England, have affected Europe the most.
But it also applies to other European regions with export-oriented companies and trading centres, such as Switzerland. Measured to the inhabitants, the Zurich Region would be in this country is the biggest loser with -157 Euro per capita and year. After that, the North-Western Switzerland (-144) and the lake Geneva region (-136). "Especially in regions with productive medium-sized companies would be affected by a Brexit," says Dominic Ponattu, has co-authored the study.
The losses based on several factors: on the one Hand, Goods and services at a Unger would be leaving the EU in the UK by new duties in the internal market more expensive. On the other hand, a weaker trade with the UK would also have to price increases, because in many European sectors, then a weaker competition could be. Incentives for new investments and innovations would be covered, including, finally, the productivity of the company would suffer a muted wage developments would be the result.
China and the United States benefit
In a soft Brexit, the income would be losses are much lower, in Switzerland, you could cut in half, according to the investigation, to 743 million euros, almost. In the UK, the losses fell to 32 billion euros, in Europe, they were falling from 40 billion to 22 billion euros.
"Brussels and London have to do anything to regulate the exit contract", says Aart De Geus, Chairman and CEO of the Bertelsmann Foundation. Otherwise, the Brexit could damage the Foundation of the largest common economic area in the world is difficult.
Some countries outside of Europe could benefit according to the researchers, but even Brexit. The United States and China, and to a lesser extent Russia. This is due to the fact that a Brexit would have a chain negative impact on European added value. "As a result, trade within Europe would be more expensive and the economic relations with the Rest of the world more attractive," explains Dominic Ponattu of the Bertelsmann Foundation.
While the EU States would have to expect a hard Brexit with a loss of over 40 billion Euro, would increase the income in Russia a year to 260 million and those in China and the USA and even 5.3, respectively, 13.2 billion.
In their calculations, the researchers considered the market size and distance from trading partners. Based on current data on international trade flows, both within Europe and between European countries and other OECD and Bric countries. The Figures were obtained from the trade statistics of the UN and the Eurostat database.
Created: 21.03.2019, 16:56 PM