Carl Johan von Seth: the moment of Truth for Trumps everything destruktivare strategy

trade war is good and easy to win. This is one of the many winged words:U.S. president Donald Trump slipped out on Twitter – can in the week put to the test.

the White house has kept up the pretence in the spring. U.S. treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin has spoken out merrily on the progress made in the negotiations with the counterparty in Beijing. As recently as a week ago he talked about ”the last couple of laps” in the deliberations. Soon into the goal.

Ahead of this week's scheduled round of negotiations in Washington, the rumor passed on a draft agreement. It would be clear already on Friday. Such has remained the world's stock markets in a good mood for several months.

the outcome of Sunday seems to matter no longer be a steak. The president threatened to more than double the specific duties against China, which he introduced last year. In addition, he would like to ”” extend the offensive further, if not Beijing to stop obstructing the negotiations.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1125069836088950784?s=20

the Move sparked the race in the markets in both Asia and Europe. Pessimism was deepened by the information that the chinese ministers now considering whether to cancel his trip to Washington in a week.

different motives behind Trump's attack. One interpretation is that the president simply raises the stakes and puts pressure on Beijing for the final push. In trade negotiations, it is not at all unusual to save the most difficult issues of controversy to the last.

the Problem with this utpressningstaktik is that China does not suffer from an acute lack of time and patience. The country's growth have improved during the first quarter of the year. There is no emergency, either economically or politically. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has not long left to its återvalskampanj. Maybe he sits not for long. Unlike his counterpart, Xi Jinping, as the de facto president for life.

another possible explanation for the Sunday move is that the disagreement between the world's two largest economies is so deep that the negotiations as soon as is about to fall together. Leaks from the discussions testify that the negotiators have recently encountered several problems. Admittedly, said the communist party would be ready to go the united states and meeting certain requirements. It is about such as export subsidies and the looting of the foreign company's technology set in the system. What China, however, do not learn to be willing to do is to enforce reforms in the National people's congress, in theory they highest decision-making body.

But if the negotiations are facing collapse must also Trump fulfill his threat and is stepping up trade wars. The conflict would reach full strength. China would implement drastic countermeasures, and aim straight for the president's kärnväljare. The exchanges will come to rasa. He want it?

is that the negotiations run on, just as the ministers are expected, however, that Donald Trump himself, in spite of everything attracted by the idea of continued, or even caused conflict. It is no secret that he likes trade wars. Trump writes on Twitter that the duties which he imposed last year have contributed to the USA's ”magnificent economic performance.”

The conclusion is contradicted by all analyses. A study suggests that the U.S. loses 1.4 billion dollars in revenue every month in the trade wars. But if the president really has convinced himself that the duties do good – why would he then remove them without further ado?

between the united states and China is not only about Donald Trump. He inherited the real problem, which bubblat in many years. The democrats in the united states is ambivalent to the conflict. Brussels and Tokyo also have a oplockad goose with Beijing.

But to provoke a crisis in world trade was the presidential election. The global economy weakening over the past year, a lot depends on his destructive tactics. An escalation would be disastrous, expensive and cost many people job, also in Europe and not least in export-dependent Sweden. Give this strategy some results? The question is perhaps rather, if Trump wants the conflict to be resolved.

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