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Aksjestrateg: It is dangerous, and I am close by to sell me out for real

(Obi.no:) Aksjestrateg Peter Hermanrud in Sparebank 1 Markets have said that you almost always have your savings in stocks.

Not all of the savings, but the money you will have for a while, you mostly have in stock. You are on a journey with the sense of value creation, it has been a great journey and I am convinced that the journey ahead is great, " says Hermanrud.

on average, rises the stock in line with the equity or earnings, and it is faster than it will rise when you put money in the bank, according to the strategist. But, nevertheless, he has chosen some very few times to say that one should be completely out of stocks, and it has been based on pricing.

- a few times in the story I have said, when the price/book has been high, so I actually meant it was right to go out.

speed

Aksjestrategen in Sparebank 1 Markets held even a post under the event "Prospects 2019 for the business sector and the capital markets" on Wednesday, on the occasion of the strategens 60 birthday.

- When it has gone well for a very long time, they tend to stop up. I believe there is a speed limit in the world economy. There is a limit to how fast it can grew over time.

Now think Hermanrud we have come just about at the point where both the stock market and the economy tend to turn down.

Where are we right now, and where are the I basic skeptical. And it's not so often I am basic skeptical, but I am now. I sit close to the exit door, closer, really, commenting on Hermanrud.

until the most recent time he has said that there must be multiple triggers, but what are the possible triggers?

- What happens before the stock exchange fall 50 per cent? The it has always been expensive initially, and it has been already. A year ago, it was knallsterk the world economy, but now it begins to weaken here and there. The growth is sharply down over everything, and of the real dangerous triggerene; the housing market in the united STATES has begun to fall, in any case, "new home sales" and other things, which I usually use as indicators there, " says Hermanrud.

He said that usually before it slams, the high kapasitetsvekst in cyclical industries.

And so I have said that it is the all too little, it built nothing in some places, and then all of a sudden now, we see that in the oil market in any case, after the oil prices came up, so were oil prices so high that it paid to increase production sharply in the shale oil and suddenly we have jaggu got high kapasitetsvekst in the oil also.

And finally renterally.

- Usually when it rattles, the start interest rates to come up and then inverts the yield curve. And the interest rate is on the rise, says Hermanrud, and concludes:

So, unfortunately, this is what I believe, neutral, but close to the exit door.

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- It is ticking down,

- It is disgusting, it is approaching, but it tends to be significantly eklere before the stock reaches the top, says aksjestrategen.

- Very often before the stock exchange get the big falls, things have been pretty sour. It is ticking down. Steadily, with all these indicators which are usually there before it slams.

Nevertheless, it is absolutely amazing how far the stock goes, when the first goods. Hermanrud think that there comes a surge, a last rise and that you get the chance to sell you down on it.

- We are waiting a "suckers rally", use it to sell. But it is dangerous, and I sit close, it will say that I am close by to sell me out for real.

also Read: Album: - the New financial crisis? Hardly

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