This summer, the Andalusian coast will lead tourist recovery with figures that are higher than 2019.

Tourism is a locomotive that relies on the Andalusian coast. According to the latest report by the Alliance for Tourism Excellence, (Exceltur), the Andalusian Coast will lead the recovery of tourism in Spain in the third quarter and the end of the year. It will continue its trend of surpassing 2019 sales levels as it did between April and June. It reveals that the high season will see a 7.4% increase in turnover for tourism entrepreneurs compared to the same time period in 2019.

This is the biggest increase in holiday destinations. They forecast 3.6% more in the Balearic Islands; 3.5% more in the Canary Islands and 5.3% on the Valencian Coast. Exceltur emphasizes that these areas are leading the recovery plan for the summer 2022 because of the expected dynamism in European and national foreign demands.

The second quarter saw the spectacular rebound in Spanish tourist demand. It is expected that this trend will continue over the next months, and that the unorthodox desire to travel will overcome any macro conditioning factors that may be ahead," highlights the alliance that brings together large corporations from all levels of the value chain. Jose Luis Zoreda (executive vice president of Exceltur) warned that Spanish tourism will reach sales levels comparable to those before the pandemic in the summer. However, this is only 1.4% less than the season discharge prior to the crisis.

In the forecast document, they also state that "even though there is a noticeable disparity in intensities, depending upon their management and differentiation capability to be able optimize their sales opportunities to maximize their sales opportunities, the summer of 2022 will see the turnover recovery in all subsectors in the tourism value chain." The forecast document also mentions that profitability will be affected by the higher cost of energy. This is 25% more than the 16% increase of supplies and 7.5% increase in labor costs. Prices will rise on average 6.5% as more that 23.4% cannot be transferred. They expect a complete recovery of pre-pandemic demand levels for the markets of origin. This includes demand for the country and neighboring markets like France.

Upward forecasts

Zoreda stated that his organization was revising its "tourist forecast scenario" for 2022, despite the disappointing start to the year. This is in response to Zoreda's unusually strong sales performance for the second quarter than we anticipated in April and for a few months in which we expect the level of expected demand intensity to be maintained. Zoreda emphasizes that, despite not having visibility for the fourth quarter of the year, the trend and reservations positions of top tourist groups in Spain and large foreign clients support these estimates today.

They also state that the "impulse of the summer" will create a situation in which the tourist Gross domestic Product at the end 2022 could reach 151 798 million euros. This means that 98% of activity levels in 2019 can be achieved. Although it is three billion less than the 154 738 million this industry was able to account for before the crisis, our April forecast was revised by approximately ten billion and 62 million more than the expected tourism GDP for 2021.