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The SPD won the state elections in Lower Saxony despite losses, the CDU lost the most. The Greens and the AfD gained the most, the FDP has to worry about the leap into the Hanover state parliament, the left missed it more clearly than five years ago. A closer look at voter migration shows how the result came about.
According to surveys by Infratest Dimap, the SPD lost a total of 90,000 voters in this state election. The Social Democrats lost by far the most to the Greens (55,000), followed by non-voters and the AfD (30,000 each). The losses to the other parties, including the left (5000), are small. The Weil party was able to win from government partners CDU (20,000) and the FDP (10,000).
The CDU lost a total of 135,000 voters compared to the last state election in October 2017. The majority migrated to AfD and non-voters with 45,000 each and to the Greens with 40,000. In addition, 20,000 previous CDU voters switched to the SPD and 10,000 to the other parties, including the left. The Christian Democrats could only win from the FDP (25,000).
The Greens won a total of 145,000 new voters. While there was no net exchange with the AfD, the party gained votes from the rest of the competition. At 55,000, most came from the SPD, as well as 40,000 from the CDU, 30,000 from previous non-voters, 15,000 from other parties including the Left and 5,000 from the FDP.
The FDP, on the other hand, lost to all other parties – a total of 100,000 votes. With 40,000 most to the AfD, also 25,000 to the CDU, 15,000 to non-voters, 10,000 to the SPD and 5,000 each to the Greens and other parties including the left.
The AfD won a total of 160,000 votes. Only with the Greens there was no net exchange – gains from all other parties. Mostly from the CDU (45,000), the FDP (40,000), the previous non-voters (35,000) and the SPD (30,000) as well as from the other parties including the left (10,000).
The other parties, including the left, lost 5,000 votes. The two government parties CDU (10,000) and SPD (5,000) as well as the FDP (also 5,000) increased. 15,000 previous voters switched to the Greens, 10,000 to the AfD. There was no exchange with the non-voters.
All numbers as of October 9, 10 p.m
