“The AfD is in better shape than it has been for a long time”

Political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder sees no government prospects for the AfD, even ten years after it was founded. "The AfD is in better shape than it has been for a long time," Schroeder told the AFP news agency. "She is able to absorb and articulate the displeasure that exists in the face of the many crises and uncertainties." However, he sees no one in the current leadership who could bring the AfD on a government course.

The AfD celebrates the tenth anniversary of its existence on Monday. The party was founded on February 6, 2013 in Oberursel, Hesse. Initially designed as a conservative-Eurosceptic party, the AfD has developed into an "aggressive right-wing populist party" with the potential "to establish itself completely in the extreme right-wing area," said Schroeder.

The political scientist from Kassel pointed out that even in the rather moderate founding phase, “all the extremists that we know today were on board”, albeit not in the first row. They would have "taken up the weather" and gradually rebuilt the AfD from within.

The reorientation began in 2015 with the “Erfurt Resolution” pushed by party right wing Björn Höcke and the replacement of the founding generation at the Essen party conference. After that, the "anti-racist, anti-immigrant, nationalistic and backward-looking style came into play," said Schroeder. With party leader Jörg Meuthen, who resigned a year ago, "the last figure who might have had the potential to put the AfD on a coalition course with other conservative parties has left the ship".

Schroeder expects that 2024 could be “the big year for the AfD” when state elections are due in the eastern states of Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia. The AfD could then become the strongest force in a state election for the first time. According to the political scientist, the consequence would not be that a good election result would also lead to government responsibility. "That is not foreseeable, but it will result in multi-party coalitions stabilizing."

With regard to the CDU, Schroeder said that party leader Friedrich Merz was “unclear whether he really wants to follow a clear course of demarcation or whether he is pursuing a pendulum policy”. Statements such as "social tourism" in connection with Ukrainian refugees or "little pashas" in the context of the New Year's Eve riots were aimed at "doing the business of the AfD without the AfD," said Schroeder. "But that won't work, after all, people prefer the original."

Merz's current course leads to an appreciation of the AfD and its positions, Schroeder said. From the point of view of voters who are not firmly anchored in the democratic constitution, "the original is more attractive than a modified copy". If Merz remains unclear in his positioning, demarcations such as the desired party exclusion against former President for the Protection of the Constitution, Hans-Georg Maassen, would appear like "helpless activities that will ultimately benefit the AfD".

The party's current poll strength of 14 to 15 percent at the federal level has been developing since last summer. Due to inflation, energy shortages and the uncertain course of the war, "the future prospects for Europe and Germany have become somewhat cloudy," said Schroeder. The AfD is "beneficiary of this pessimistic attitude". With her story of "We down here and those up there" she also offers a sense of community.

The AfD should not only be understood as an extremist party, "but is an expression of social contradictions and crisis situations," said the political scientist. "It's about more than just fighting symptoms, it's about our economic, social and democratic system as a whole." Further reforms are needed for good work and good welfare state conditions.