Russia: speculation on the return of Wagner's mercenaries exiled in Belarus

More than a month after their rebellion and their – interrupted – march on Moscow, which had shaken the power of the Kremlin, would the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner group aim to return to Russia? While the agreement that ended the mutiny provided for Yevgeny Prigojine to settle in Belarus and that his men could accompany him, speculation is circulating about the withdrawal of the Wagner group from the country bordering Ukraine, the Poland and Russia.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank, an inside Russian source claimed on August 8 that Wagner's troops had begun a withdrawal from Belarus. Buses reportedly began to evacuate groups of 500 to 600 mercenaries to Krasnodar, a city in western Russia, and towards the oblasts of Voronezh and Rostov.

According to other sources cited by the think tank based in Washington, this departure could be explained by a financial aspect. According to their hypothesis, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko would refuse to finance Wagner after finding that Moscow would not pay for their installation on the Belarusian side.

Recently, satellite images had indicated the presence of a number of mercenaries at a former military base about a hundred kilometers from Minsk. According to information from the Belarusian Hajun Project, a Telegram channel powered by exiled journalist Anton Motolko, there were just over 3,500 paramilitaries on the spot.

According to the ISW source, a second convoy to Russia is scheduled for August 13. Only a small group of paramilitary instructors would remain in Belarus to train Belarusian forces. Information which, if true, would suggest the at least partial failure of the agreement signed between Wagner's boss and Vladimir Putin.

It would not be the first time that the terms of this agreement have been obviously undermined. Evgueni Prigogine, supposed to remain in exile, has been seen several times in Russia in recent weeks. On July 26, he appeared all smiles in a photograph on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, alongside a representative of the Central African delegation. The rumor about his presence in Russia had already been launched in early July by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. “As for Prigozhin, he is in St. Petersburg. Where is he this morning? Maybe gone to Moscow, or elsewhere, but he is not on Belarusian territory,” said the head of state.