"Regression in the fight against poverty" - and a new poorhouse of the world

The crises of the present, from the pandemic to inflation and climate change, are affecting everyone. But the poor are hit particularly hard, especially in developing countries. This is highlighted in the new poverty report presented by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) on Monday.

19.1 percent of the population in developing countries live in poverty, i.e. around 1.2 billion people worldwide. However, in the past 15 years there has been considerable success in fighting poverty, particularly in India. This has also shifted the regional focus of poverty. However, setbacks are now threatening again.

The report examined 111 developing countries, covering around 6.1 billion people. 1.2 billion of them are in some way affected by poverty - at least according to the definition of the UNDP. Because this differs from other approaches, for example those of the World Bank. This has drawn the poverty line since September 2022 at an income of $2.15 per day, before that it was $1.90 per day. In 2020, 700 million people worldwide had less available.

"Income is certainly an indicator of poverty," said Achim Steiner, head of the UNDP. "But it's not the only one." The UNDP therefore takes a total of ten factors into account. These include the food situation, child mortality, access to schools, drinking water and electricity. Therefore, the number of poor in this perspective is significantly higher than in the World Bank.

Measured in absolute numbers, India is still the country with the most poor people: 230.8 million, followed by Nigeria with 92.1 million and Pakistan with 84.2 million.

If you look at the relative share, however, other countries are ahead: In Niger, at 76.3 percent, more than three quarters of the population are affected by poverty, in South Sudan the figure is not much less at 74.3 percent.

In three other countries, more than half of the population is considered poor: in Burkina Faso at 65.3 percent, in Chad at 64.6 percent and in the Central African Republic at 55.8 percent.

So far so bad. But there is also positive news. Because in India it has been possible to free large parts of the population from poverty in recent years. In 2005/06, 55.1 percent of the residents were still affected, in 2015/16 27.7 percent and in 2020/21 only 16.4 percent. In this way, 415 million people escaped poverty within 15 years.

This success means that South Asia is no longer the center of world poverty. This is now in sub-Saharan Africa. 578.8 million people are currently living in poverty there, in South Asia there are "only" 385.1 million.

Even the poorest of the poor now live mainly south of the Sahara. Those people are considered to be those who are affected by all of the ten factors that the UNDP takes into account for its definition of poverty. That's a total of 4.1 million worldwide, but 3.8 million of them live in sub-Saharan Africa.

In Nigeria alone there are 910,000, 685,000 in Niger and 615,000 in Ethiopia. 214,000 also live in neighboring Sudan, 110,000 in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The largest numbers in the Caribbean are in Haiti at 20,000, in East Asia there are Papua New Guinea at 27,000 and Myanmar at 24,000.

Even more problematic: there could soon be more again. Because the consequences of the corona pandemic also and especially affect the poor. Estimates have so far assumed that this could wipe out the successes of the previous three to ten years.

Based on initial data from the post-pandemic period, the UNDP study now comes to the conclusion that the worse scenario is more likely to have occurred, i.e. the developing countries have been thrown back a decade when it comes to the issue of poverty.

"For the first time in many years, we are seeing a step backwards in the fight against poverty in the world," said Steiner. "We have a very serious situation."

However, the most recent development shows how difficult it actually is to obtain accurate data – the more difficult the poorer a country is. The UNDP estimates for the 50 million poor people in the three poorest countries are based on data from the years 2010 to 2012, which were merely extrapolated.

At the same time, the data on the wealth of billionaires worldwide is updated almost every hour, the study complains. However, the data revolution has not yet reached poverty statistics. This is precisely why there is still no reliable data on how the inflation in energy prices in recent months has affected the situation of the poor and poorest in developing countries. The fact that 55 developing countries are now having problems servicing their debt shows that the most recent crisis will have an impact.

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