"Reconciliation is not possible at all. First, Ukraine must win the war”

The Russian co-founder of the human rights organization Memorial Irina Scherbakowa sees no possibility of reconciliation between Ukrainians and Russians as long as Russia wages its war of aggression against the neighboring country. She can understand the feelings of the Ukrainians towards the invaders: "It's not about any kind of reconciliation," she said on Sandra Maischberger's ARD talk show. "It's not possible at all. First, Ukraine must win the war, and secondly, courts, tribunals... must be held accountable for those who are really guilty. Only then can there be any basis” for the restoration of relationships.

Being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize together with human rights activists from Belarus and Ukraine was a "really unbelievable hour", according to Scherbakova. In addition, it is extremely important that the prize also went to fellow Ukrainians. Working in a human rights organization in an autocratic country can be frustrating. "If you hold all the documents in front of people for 30 years (...) and we see that there is always only a minority that perceives it and we don't reach the majority of the population..." It was a great "tragedy", that despite a history that includes a dictator like Joseph Stalin, nationalism has been able to spread so much in Russia.

Russian aggression can also be seen as one of the consequences of forced nationalism – in conventional military form against Ukraine, in various other forms also against other countries. In the meantime, quite blatant threats about the use of nuclear weapons keep coming from Russia. In Germany in particular, these threats are causing concerns about an escalation into a Third World War.

Security expert Claudia Major is skeptical about this debate. In this context, especially in Germany, she sees an "extreme narrowing of the scenarios", i.e. an exaggerated focus on a nuclear threat from her point of view. In France, for example, the debate looks very different. In Germany, too, one must “take a step back and consider what escalation scenarios are”. Russia can escalate the war conventionally, in cyberspace or in a hybrid way.

So far, however, Russia's response to perceived provocations has consisted of rocket attacks - not nuclear bombs. This was the case, for example, after the Ukrainian shelling of Crimea in the summer, just like most recently after the explosion on the Crimean bridge, for which Vladimir Putin announced retaliation shortly afterwards. "We must not downplay this nuclear threat," said Major. "But we have to be careful ourselves that we don't go down a one-way street where we think it will automatically lead to it."

The key word "atom" was also a topic for other guests, who entered into an unlikely alliance here. Among other things, Greta Thunberg and Friedrich Merz were guests in addition to Scherbakowa and Major. Thunberg had been interviewed in advance and spoke out in favor of using nuclear power instead of coal. The 66-year-old conservative used the through ball to present himself as united with the 19-year-old climate activist – he also spoke out in favor of the continued operation of nuclear power plants.

On other issues, the CDU leader was less harmonious - especially when interpreting the CDU defeat in the state elections in Lower Saxony last weekend. The party lost 5.5 percentage points compared to the previous election. 40,000 of your voters have migrated to the AfD.

“I could have imagined it differently,” said Merz about the setback after winning two state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein. “I'm happy with the year, but of course not with the overall situation. There's room for improvement." After all, the result of the state election is better than that of the federal election. In Lower Saxony it was "mainly" about the candidates, "it was not a vote about the federal government". This contradicts what Merz said before the election. "Your second vote for the @CDUNds (CDU Lower Saxony) is also a vote for the @CDU Deutschlands," it said initially on his Twitter account, after the election the statement was posted in the same place: "The election result is first and foremost a result of state politics" - the line that Merz continued at Maischberger.

Merz defended himself against the change of CDU voters in the direction of the AfD by stating that more voters from the FDP and SPD together had migrated to the AfD than from the CDU. Maischberger replied that she was now speaking to the CDU leader, and that he had, to a certain extent, contributed to the polarization of the debate with controversial statements. Merz was sharply criticized for saying that "social tourism" is now being observed among Ukrainians who come to Germany instead of simply fleeing the war. However, Merz also did not want to accept the view that his statement had strengthened right-wing narratives: "Everyone agrees that this is not the case". The AfD problem is not a problem of the Union alone. This is everyone's problem. "It's a problem for all of Germany, but unfortunately it's now a bigger problem in the West, too."

But that will not mean that he will try to catch up with the AfD or even overtake it on the right: "I will not try to copy the AfD anywhere in order to win back voters from the AfD," said Merz .

He does not want his general statements on migration to be understood as such an attempt. "We will probably have the highest number of additional asylum seekers this year, apart from the refugees from Ukraine who come via this Balkan route," said the CDU leader. “And the numbers are so high that we have to expect that they will be higher overall in 2022 than in 2016. Let us take the liberty of pointing out this problem. And also to say that we may overtax our state. It is a legitimate task for a political party to say that too.”