Presidential in Venezuela: the favorite of the primary of the opposition banned from public office

The process of the opposition primaries for the presidential election of 2024 in Venezuela has just experienced a new important twist: Maria Corina Machado, the favorite candidate in the polls by collecting more than 50% of the voting intentions learned that she was "incapacitated (prohibition to exercise any public function) by the Comptroller General of the Republic. They will normally be held on October 22. It was José Brito who announced it, one of those former opponents of the regime who decided to get closer to Chavista power, described as a “scorpion” for this by the opposition because they were considered traitors. “Government disqualifications are zero. It's trash, reacted Maria Corina Machado. We knew it. They are mistaken if they believe that this disqualification farce will destabilize participation in the primary. Let them prepare now to see us with even greater force!”

Of the 14 candidates running for this primary, three are now disqualified. Henri Capriles, candidate against Maduro in 2013, was disqualified in 2017. And Freddy Superlano was disqualified following his victory in the 2021 regional elections against the Chavista candidate in the region of origin of Hugo Chavez, the Barinas. A new election was called and the opposition candidate again won. This result gave hope to the opposition, which believed that from now on it could prevail over the party in power through the ballot box - despite the unequal conditions for the organization of the polls which favor the Chavista candidates -, both the people's discontent against the government is great. The economic and social situation has been very degraded for several years: lack of fuel, power outages, galloping inflation making most products inaccessible, university and health system in agony. It was the first election not boycotted by the entire opposition since 2018.

“The disqualification of Maria Corina by the comptroller general is an unconstitutional, unfounded and odious act, denounced Henrique Capriles. We categorically reject this further demonstration of the undemocratic behavior of Maduro and his regime.” Even the Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, who has initiated a rapprochement with Maduro's government, expressed his opposition to this decision: "No administrative authority should take away political rights from any citizen".

A first incapacitation of Maria Corina Machado had been pronounced on July 13, 2015 after accusations of non-declaration of assets. We therefore learned last week from José Brito that a second incapacitation had been pronounced by the controller, but this time for 15 years. Curiously, no one knew about this second disqualification. She is accused of having participated in the “Juan Guaido corruption network”. The latter had been appointed interim president by the National Assembly then dominated by the opposition in January 2019. Maria Corina never participated in the interim government of Juan Guaido. She was even very critical of the latter.

The opponent is often referred to as the iron lady of the opposition in the country. “Maria Corina Machado has a very aggressive speech against the government which she denounces as corrupt, inept and mafia, but also against the opposition, specifies the political scientist Hugo Prieto. She's been touring the country lately like no one has in a long time. This appealed to Venezuelans.” Maria Corina Machado has always advocated an increase in the sanctions decided by Washington against the Maduro regime. She even called several times for an armed US intervention to overthrow the Chavista government. Her radicalism placed her on the fringes of the opposition for a long time. But this time, the polls give her the favorite for the primary on October 22nd. With more than 50% of the voting intentions, she is ahead of the moderate Henrique Capriles. This disqualification shows a new hardening of the Chavista regime against the opposition which seems to further distance the possibility of holding a presidential election in 2024.

Another negative sign that goes in this direction: Maduro decided in mid-June to dismiss all the members of the Superior Electoral Court when, for the first time in twenty years, it included incumbents from the opposition and seemed relatively balanced. “We risk being confronted with a situation like in 2018 with a presidential election without a real opponent against Maduro, fears Hugo Prieto. This time, the governments of Lula in Brazil and Petro in Colombia are likely to accept the result. And Biden may seek a political settlement with Maduro's government." Recently, a meeting took place in Qatar between a Chavismo heavyweight, José Rodriguez, and the White House adviser for Latin America, Juan Gonzalez.