Oktoberfest effect? Corona incidence in Munich increases by 77 percent

A week and a half after the start of the Oktoberfest, the number of corona infections in Munich is increasing faster and faster. On a weekly basis, the incidence has risen by almost 77 percent to 424.9, according to figures from the Robert Koch Institute on Tuesday morning (as of 3:08 a.m.). That is significantly more than the Bavaria-wide increase of 43.1 percent or the German increase of 29.4 percent. The incidence is the number of new corona infections recorded per 100,000 people within seven days.

Since the health authorities report practically no new cases to the RKI on weekends, which the RKI can include in the figures for the next morning, Tuesday is usually the first day of the week on which there are significant increases in the incidences.

A connection between the increase and the Oktoberfest can hardly be proven at the moment, but it is obvious: there was also a significant increase in the incidences at other folk festivals around a week and a half after the start. Often these were then increased for a good week. Experts had also predicted a "Wiesn wave" in the run-up to the Oktoberfest.

In the meantime, however, the incidence figures have lost some of their meaningfulness. Experts have been assuming for some time that there will be a high number of corona cases not recorded by the RKI - mainly because not all infected people have a PCR test done. Only positive PCR tests count in the statistics. In addition, late registrations and transmission problems can lead to the distortion of individual daily values.