In Moscow, the shock wave after the death of Prigojine

In Moscow

“Even in hell, he will be the best!” It is around 10:30 p.m. Wednesday in Moscow when one of the channels closest to the Wagner militia on Telegram messaging, Gray Zone, 600,000 subscribers, pays tribute in its own way to Yevgueni Prigojine. Even within Russian ultranationalist, patriotic and pro-Wagner circles, who still hoped for a miracle, we must face the facts: the founder of the paramilitary group is dead. No, he is not in the second plane of his private fleet, which took off at the same time and which then just landed in Moscow.

This time, Prigojine did not do the “castling” he sometimes liked to perform at the last moment, changing equipment, just to cover his tracks. According to the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency, the turbulent 62-year-old businessman is well registered among the passengers of the plane which has just crashed in the Tver region, northwest of Moscow, 50 kilometers from the second home of Vladimir Putin in Valdai. Double punishment for the hard fringe of Russian patriots: another of their heroes, Dmitri Outkin alias "Wagner" in person, co-founder and military commander-in-chief of the group since 2014, is on the list of ten passengers. Other militia cadres, including the chief logistician and another right-hand man of Prigojine abroad, Valery Chekalov, were on board. Wednesday evening, here is Wagner decapitated.

Different theories are circulating quickly on the origin of the crash. The thesis of the accident is little retained. We prefer that of an intentional shot of Russian anti-aircraft defense against the small private plane. “A murder”, a “terrorist act”, immediately accuse various Telegram channels sympathizing with Wagner. Some, seeing in it the hand of the Russian authorities - even of Vladimir Putin -, denounce outright an "act of treason by Russia". While others point the finger, as usual, at the Ukrainian services.

Wednesday evening, then the next day, the reactions follow one another on the very active Russian social networks. Experts or independent journalists comment on it. “Nothing illogical, Prigozhin was a victim of the Russian world he helped build, a world of violence and betrayal, without rules”, publishes political scientist Kirill Rogov. "The regime, which sees that the army is holding up well in southern Ukraine, no longer needed him." In ultranationalist circles, on the contrary, tributes rain down, more or less substantiated. “Prigozhin and Utkin were real heroes,” writes nationalist author Zakhar Prilepin, once celebrated in France, who escaped a bomb attack last May. “Prigojine had style and dynamism, his passion for the homeland was more important than money, than life.”

Saluting Comrade Prigozhin, military blogger Roman Saponkov believes, unlike Rogov, that this “murder will have catastrophic consequences. Its sponsors do not understand the mood within the army,” he wrote, fearing a dramatic effect on troop morale. The troublemaker remained, it is true, popular in the Russian ranks, even after his abortive mutiny of June 24. Several Telegram channels affiliated with Wagner, admittedly in the minority, even called for a reaction after the assassination of the “chief”.

In St. Petersburg, shortly after the incident, well-wishers gather near Wagner's headquarters with candles and photos. In Novosibirsk on Thursday, a small memorial is erected near the recruitment center of the private company. But if the fate of Prigojine is indeed the headline of all Russian newspapers, Thursday, on the side of Russian official communication, the reactions remain few. On state television the night before, the first channel allocated only about twenty seconds to the incident, on a 40-minute news bulletin, in 14th position of the summary.

To the chagrin of pro-Kremlin political scientist Sergei Markov, who regrets the “political lethargy” constituted by the “absence of any official version”, leaving the royal road to Western theories which accuse Putin (he thinks it is Ukraine ). Thursday evening, Vladimir Putin still offered his condolences to the relatives of the head of Wagner, welcoming a “talented” man who made “mistakes” and assuring that the investigation will be carried out “to the end”.

What do Muscovites think? If perplexity reigns, life has not stopped. “If I had any sympathy for Prigozhin before, it ended with the mutiny”, explains Dmitri, a 47-year-old engineer, who evokes the current “fantasies” about those responsible for the crash. "It was a stab in the back of the country, he was happily living on a tightrope, so what happened to him was predictable and expected." Mark, a young computer scientist, says, him, "not to consider Prigojine as a traitor": "If not, why was he not arrested immediately? For me, he helped the country, he fought for the Russian people.”

Within the establishment, whose members are quoted by the Meduza site, the fate of Wagner's boss does not surprise anyone either: "Putin never forgives." The independent site Verstka, for its part, decides to ask their opinion of Russian loyalist deputies, for whom the ultrapatriots represented a threat. They struggle to hide their relief. “We are dancing”, even comments one of them. “Prigozhin? Fuck him,” stings another.

Meanwhile, various reports evoke a transfer already begun of Wagner's activities in Africa (Libya included) to other private companies: Redut, piloted by the Russian GRU or Convoy, created by the head of Crimea Sergei Axionov. A withdrawal from Wagner's portfolios which Prigojine would have vehemently opposed in recent days. Was his creature being drained of its blood?

In any case, in the opinion of Russian observers, one thing is clearer than ever: whatever the origin, his death sends a stark signal to anyone who still dares to provoke Russian power - especially before the presidential election. , dear to Vladimir Putin, of March 2024. “After the liberal opposition, the opposition of the “angry patriots” (the ultranationalist blogger Igor “Strelkov” Girkine in prison, Prigojine dead, editor’s note) has also been destroyed”, writes a connoisseur of the Russian system. And those who have been in contact with the boss of Wagner, must, probably, “raze the walls”.

Fortuitous coincidence or not, on Wednesday, General Surovikin, seen as a former supporter of Prigojine, was officially dismissed from his post as general in charge of the Russian airborne troops, after several weeks of interrogation by the FSB. He would remain "at the disposal" of the Russian Defense for another function. But is his case finally settled?