Europe's most unstable region becomes a problem for Scholz

Before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the Western Balkans was a neglected region. The six associated countries want to join the EU, but the process has been stalled for years. Corruption, authoritarianism and nationalism were rampant. Russia expanded its propaganda activities. China sought influence through infrastructure projects. And the west? Didn't seem to understand that there was a dangerous vulnerability in its midst.

That changed with the Ukraine war. Neuralgic points, which Russia counts as part of its own sphere of influence, have moved into the strategic focus of the West: Georgia, the Republic of Moldova – and the Western Balkans, geographically the inner courtyard of the EU. The three of the six countries that are not NATO members are particularly fragile: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Kosovo. But there are doubts as to whether the EU has learned from the mistakes of the past.

In any case, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has made the issue a top priority. "The six states of the Western Balkans belong in the European Union," he said in early November. He advocates for their accession. On Tuesday, Scholz travels to the Albanian capital of Tirana, where a summit meeting between politicians from the EU and the Western Balkans is taking place. Its mission is complex. The first conflict is set. One reason for this is the largest and most important country in the Balkans: Serbia.

On Thursday, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic angrily announced that he would not attend the summit. "As far as I know, there is no precedent for a country in the Western Balkans to boycott such a summit," says Florian Bieber, head of the Center for Southeast European Studies at the Karl Franzens University in Graz. The threat alone is unusual. Since then, the Serbian government has backtracked; now it is open whether Vucic will participate. Apparently the President is testing his leeway.

Vucic' displeasure goes back to a personnel decision by Kosovan Prime Minister Albin Kurti. The basic conflict runs deep. Belgrade does not recognize its neighbor Kosovo and claims its territory for itself, which has historical, nationalistic and power-political reasons. Without the solution of the conflict but no accession to the EU.

Germany and France recently proposed a compromise: an agreement similar to the German-German basic treaty of 1972, in which the FRG and GDR assured each other of territorial integrity, but the FRG stuck to the goal of reunification. Factual – but not legal – recognition could also improve Serbian-Kosovar relations and bring the region closer to the EU.

The only question is whether that is even desired in Belgrade. Vucic operates a seesaw policy between West and East. He does not support the sanctions against Moscow, although Serbia, as a candidate for accession, has to adapt its foreign policy to that of the EU. He is pro-European, but a few years ago he was gifted fighter jets and tanks by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In his own country he governs de facto alone. "The whole regime is tailored to Vucic," says expert Bieber. The non-governmental organization Freedom House only classifies Serbia as “partially free”. The government has "continued to erode political rights and civil liberties and is putting independent media, the political opposition and civil society organizations under pressure," the statement said.

Bieber therefore doubts that Vucic has a serious interest in European membership. Because then "he would have to initiate constitutional reforms that would ultimately be his undoing". Brussels, on the other hand, is reluctant to speak certain truths, such as that EU membership is not possible with Vucic's policies and that Serbia in its current state is no longer a democracy.

The West isn't using its leverage, agrees Kurt Bassuener from the Berlin think tank Democratization Policy Council. He has "more influence in the western Balkans than anywhere else in the world". Instead, the EU announces progress that does not exist in reality.

"The gap between rhetoric and political reality has widened since February 24 and that's a real problem," Bassuener said. Basically, the Europeans are concerned with preventing unrest in the region, skimming off workers – and keeping migrants away.

In fact, the Balkans have recently been the main focus as a migration route. For a number of countries in Asia, Africa and the Caribbean, there was no visa requirement in Serbia. In recent months, many migrants have come to EU countries via Serbia who have no prospect of claiming protection there: Indians, Burundians, Tunisians. Austria in particular felt the effect. Under pressure from Brussels, Serbia has already reintroduced visa requirements for citizens of Tunisia and Burundi, and it is to follow for Indians by the end of the year.

Nevertheless, according to the European border protection agency Frontex, the Western Balkans route is still the most active migration route to the EU. Migrants who stayed there or in Greece during the pandemic are increasingly making their way. Brussels is now working on an action plan to reduce immigration via the Balkan route.

Observers agree that there is no alternative to the integration of the Western Balkans into the EU in the long term, despite all the problems in the region. On the one hand, Russia is using the tensions in the Balkans to destabilize the EU from there. On the other hand, the constant intermediate stage in which the Western Balkan countries find themselves harms the planning security for companies, says Bieber.

"Economic uncertainty leads to political uncertainty, which in turn can lead to crises," said the expert. "The price for this would ultimately be much higher for the EU, because crises bring instability and refugees with them." A scenario that Europeans want to avoid.

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