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After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the forced merger of Credit Suisse with UBS, economist Veronika Grimm believes it is still too early to give the all-clear for the global banking sector. "One should be very vigilant," said Grimm WELT AM SONNTAG. "But you also have to be careful not to increase the risk of a banking crisis through excessive alarmism."
Psychology plays a crucial role in this situation. Nobody can currently say with certainty whether the individual cases will expand into a banking crisis. "But it wouldn't be a good idea to speculate about this now, apart from the current state of affairs," says Grimm.
The economist now considers the financial sector to be more resilient than it was during the 2008/2009 crisis. "We are in a better position than we were at the time of the financial crisis, but there are gaps - for example because you don't keep an eye on risks that have not arisen for a long time," said Grimm.
“There were stress tests, for example, for risks from low interest rates. Why hasn't one tested what a quick rate hike by the central banks means for the financial institutions?” she asked. At this and other points of the regulation one may have to "sharpen".
The crisis in the banks must not mean that the central banks are no longer raising interest rates. "In terms of inflation, we're not out of the woods yet, further rate hikes will be necessary," said Grimm. “If the central banks relax too early out of concern for financial market stability, inflation could remain high longer than expected or even pick up again. That must not happen.”
On the other hand, the uncertainties in the banking sector would also dampen lending to the economy and indirectly inflation again. “So the central banks have to look very carefully and weigh them up,” said the economist. "The situation is extremely challenging."
"Everything on shares" is the daily stock exchange shot from the WELT business editorial team. Every morning from 5 a.m. with the financial journalists from WELT. For stock market experts and beginners. Subscribe to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcast, Amazon Music and Deezer. Or directly via RSS feed.
