Belarus: the presence of Wagner's militiamen, a real but limited "threat" for Poland

The statement made Vladimir Putin smile... much less the Poles. During an interview with the Russian president on Sunday July 24, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko indicated that Wagner's militiamen, who had taken refuge in his country since the mutiny of their leader Prigojine, "are asking to go west (.. .) in Warsaw, Rzeszów'. A barely veiled threat of invasion of Poland, which adds to a multitude of warning signals for this country bordering Belarus.

Last Thursday, July 20, Minsk announced that Wagner's fighters were training with Belarusian special forces in the Bretsky camp, less than five kilometers from the Polish border. As soon as the announcement of the exile of the paramilitary group in Belarus, Poland felt the threat. President Andrzej Duda had characterized their presence as a "potential threat to Poland" and had decided to transfer more than a thousand soldiers and dozens of armored vehicles from the West to the Belarusian border.

Warsaw is obviously right to be wary of Wagner's presence not far from its border. The paramilitary group has already demonstrated its destabilizing skills in Africa, and gained combat experience in Ukraine. But the probability of a major attack on Poland by militiamen associated with the Belarusian army seems, for the time being, perfectly extravagant. Simply because they can't afford it. In addition to the structural weakness of the Minsk army, Wagner has only 3,500 militiamen on Belarusian soil, according to the latest information available.

In addition, recent satellite images, provided by Maxar and Planet, of the mercenaries' base camp, located at Tsel in the center of the country, demonstrate that "Wagner does not have the heavy weapons necessary to mount a serious offensive (... ) without significant rearmament”, underlines the Institute for the Study of War in its bulletin of July 23. According to the think tank, the militia has only hundreds of cars and vans and about 25 tractor-trailers. All of its armored vehicles had to be handed over to the Russian Ministry of Defense after the mutiny.

Opposite, Poland is a NATO country protected by Article 5, has one of the largest armies in Europe and hosts an American military base. “Lukashenko's gesticulations are always to be taken with a certain reserve, tempers Jacques Rupnik, specialist in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, director of research emeritus at Sciences Po. bellicose remarks, to show that he and Wagner can coexist and to stall in a kind of verbal escalation that pleases Putin”.

On the other hand, it is not foolish to imagine that Wagner could act more subtly to destabilize Poland and the countries bordering Belarus. Their very presence in this country induces a form of pressure, both on northern Ukraine and on Poland. Volodymyr Zelensky, like Warsaw, was also forced to move some troops close to the Belarusian border, when they could have been useful during the ongoing counter-offensive. “By dint of putting pressure, everyone mobilizes their forces, this creates a security dilemma and everyone feeds the machine”, underlines Céline Bayou, lecturer at Inalco and associate researcher at the Center de recherche Europe- Eurasia.

This pressure in itself is enough to constitute a very real threat. In Belarus, "Wagner reigns a kind of permanent doubt," adds the specialist. The proximity of the very strategic Suwalki corridor, this strip of land often considered NATO's weak point, which connects the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad to Belarus along the border of Poland and Lithuania, contributes to this deleterious climate. Wagner's still vague role on the spot also contributes to this.

If no direct confrontation is possible for the moment, the group of mercenaries could carry out destabilization operations. “Because they know how to do it, we see it in Africa, and free themselves from the rules. It is in the DNA of private military companies, recalls Céline Bayou. They can participate in the organization of various provocations with the idea of ​​triggering an incident or an overreaction. In 2021, Belarus had already tried to destabilize Poland and the European Union by using the migration weapon. The West then accused Minsk, which has always denied it, of artificially creating a crisis by bringing in candidates for immigration, bringing them to the border by promising them easy passage to the EU. In this kind of indirect operations, Wagner has already demonstrated its effectiveness.

In this particular context, "it makes sense to move troops", emphasizes Jacques Rupnik. Especially for Poland. With the war in Ukraine, the country "feels more vulnerable, closer to the conflict, so it reacts quickly to every development." Especially since Poland will soon enter an electoral period, since parliamentary elections which promise to be close will be held in the fall. It is therefore essential, for President Duda, to “form the sacred union in the face of the threat”.

“Poland has every interest in strongly denouncing the threat to its borders, so that it is taken seriously by its allies”, abounds Céline Bayou. And the country does not skimp on the means. In addition to the numerous military contracts signed since the start of the war in Ukraine, Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak indicated on July 23 that a battalion would soon be formed in Augustow, a Polish town located a few kilometers from the Belarusian border, and that others would follow. "We care about the security of the eastern flank!" he said.

In response to these initiatives, Russia is playing its usual part. After the reinforcement of Polish troops on the Belarusian border, the Kremlin immediately denounced “aggressiveness towards Belarus and Russia”. Visiting Saint Petersburg, Alexander Lukashenko even accused the Central European country of wanting to “transfer territories” from western Ukraine to Poland. A total inversion of reality, dear to the Russian narrative.