After the death of Prigozhin and Utkin, what will become of Wagner?

In the crash of the plane connecting Moscow to Saint Petersburg on Wednesday August 23, Wagner did not simply lose his leader. Besides Evgueni Prigojine, a significant part of his staff disappeared with him. First of all, Dmitri Outkine, co-founder of the militia and real operational leader, and Valéri Tchekalov, its logistics manager. Decapitated, the private military company seems on borrowed time. What will she become?

It is hard to imagine a survival of Wagner in its current form. Vladimir Putin had indeed proposed to Andrei Trochev to take command of the militia after the mutiny. But he had refused. And recent events will probably not make him change his mind. Two solutions remain: a pure and simple "dissolution" or "recovery for the benefit of a new structure", estimates Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian Observatory in Moscow. In both cases, "there could be a recycling of the competence of the units under other brands, held by people more loyal" to the Kremlin, adds Kevin Limonier, lecturer in Slavic studies at the French Institute of Geopolitics .

Because Wagner “is not a company”, recalls the Russian-speaking cyberspace specialist. "It's a franchise made up of a myriad of companies, with a multitude of networks, skills." The Russian Ministry of Defense may want to recover these gains, which has been in fierce competition with Wagner since the start of the war in Ukraine.

These “acquis” mainly concern the militiamen. What will they do ? On the evening of Prigozhin's death, many of them threatened the Russian authorities with reprisals. "Military correspondents close to Wagner are very bitter, angry," said Arnaud Dubien. If a coordinated action like that of June 23 and 24 seems implausible, “individuals may possibly attempt brilliance, attacks, like a kind of OAS syndrome”, warns the specialist.

“We will leave the choice to the less virulent”, estimates Kevin Limonier, as after the mutiny. But what will happen to the "last square"? Will he be eliminated? “Some claim that Prigojine would have left instructions” to compromise even the Russian president himself, underlines the lecturer. What is the nuisance capacity of this beleaguered militia? Stripped of his heavy armament after the mutiny, Wagner no longer had the same military resources as in June.

This is the big question. In recent years, Evgueni Prigojine has woven an immense network in Africa, particularly in the Central African Republic and Mali. And Russia cannot afford to lose these territories. "The Kremlin has come to understand that Africa is a sort of second front in its war against the global West," judge Kevin Limonier. “There is a lot to gain there” for them. At the same time, some African countries like the Central African Republic need Russia and would be “in a delicate position without it”.

Vladimir Putin will therefore no doubt seek to regain control and redistribute the cards. What he has already started to do: during the Russia-Africa summit at the end of July, the Russian president "introduced General Averianov, strongman of the GRU (General Directorate of Intelligence, editor's note) to the Malians", underlines Arnaud Dubien. No member of Wagner was invited to this meeting. On Tuesday, August 22, the Russian Deputy Defense Minister traveled to Libya, again without Wagner. A reconfiguration of ties with Africa was therefore underway, long before Prigojine's death.

“Wagner had a use in Syria, in the Donbass in 2014, when Russia could not assume”, recalls the director of the Franco-Russian Observatory. Today, she assumes everything, and “will necessarily find a montage to maintain her presence there”. With Averianov as a new Prigojine, but more subservient?

Besides Wagner, Prigojine had established a veritable galaxy, made up of several satellites. Among them, the Internet Research Agency (IRA), a veritable “troll factory” serving Russia. This structure had already been partly dismantled after the mutiny. “Employees received a dismissal letter in early July,” explains Arnaud Dubien. There too, there could be a “retraining” of skills. “Part of the workforce has already been recovered by state bodies,” says Kevin Limonier.

This should also be the case for the many Prigojine companies operating in Russia and abroad, in finance, construction, influence or even mining and forestry. With the death of Wagner's boss, Russia could therefore seize significant human resources, but also many "capital circuits". Concord, the parent company of this galaxy, founded by Prigojine and entrusted to his daughter, seems to have suffered the consequences from the mutiny, since the Ministry of Defense would have broken the very lucrative contracts which bound them.