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Who will benefit from a US withdrawal in Syria

you are in a double reassurance mission on the way: During US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo on Tuesday a multi-day middle East Tour begins, is flown to the national security Advisor of the country, John Bolton, on Monday in Turkey.

There are sensitive to travel of the two representatives of US President Donald Trump. Because the decision of the U.S. troops from the Syria to withdraw, in the Region, many of the reactions ?triggered: joy, Fears and Worries. But above all: uncertainty. However, it is unclear exactly when the US soldiers, Syria will be left. While Trump continues to hold on to them tight, the deduction should be made "quickly", it seems that other Stakeholders in Washington to step on the brake.

A representative of the US Ministry of foreign Affairs said on Friday that there is still no timetable. Bolton wants to see the trigger in such a way that the terrorist militia Islamic state (IS) "is a hit and not recover ( ... )". This suggests that it is likely to be rather months than weeks.

in The nearly eight years ago outbreak of Syria conflict has calmed down in the past few months. The UN and international powers try to finally put a political process. However, an end to US engagement with the ground, a new dynamic forces in Syria could occur, the allies of the Americans under massive pressure, but at the same time declared enemies would help.

the Kurds as a loser

especially the Kurds in the North and East of the country, the big losers would be. The Kurdish militia YPG serves Washington in Syria so far, as the most important Partner in the fight against the IS. The U.S. army supported the Kurdish troops not only with air strikes, but ?also with training.

Meanwhile, the Kurds control about a third of the country, including Syria's most important Oil reserves in the East of the country. In the North of Syria, they have established a self-government.

However, the YPG maintains close ties to the outlawed Kurdish workers ' party PKK, which is why the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is determined to begin another military operation against the militia. You should only be a matter of time.

alone stands the chances of Kurdish troops in the fight against the Turkish army bad. Nearly a year ago, you had to an Offensive by Ankara on the Kurdish ?Stronghold of Afrin in the North-West of Syria's soft and back.

United States demand that Turkey guarantees

in order for such a scenario is not repeated, will Bolton of Turkey guarantees for the Kurds demand. "We do not think that the Turks military operations, companies should not fully aligned with the United States and which the United States has not agreed to," he said at the weekend. But will go for Erdogan?

a similar fate as in ' afrīn remains the Kurds spared, they have strengthened their contacts with the government in Damascus to the one you have is actually a strained relationship.

Over the decades, have for the repression in Syria, the Kurdish minority being discriminated against. But for lack of other partners, a choice the Kurds are hardly, do you want to be rubbed on several fronts. Recently, advanced already by Syrian government forces in the Kurdish-controlled city of Manbij in Northern Syria.?

Assad and Iran benefit

The Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose troops had been bombed a chemical weapons use by the United States in the past year, can extend its influence in the country, without the need to do something. And yet another party to the conflict is likely to benefit from a US withdrawal: the Shiite Iran, the Trump is actually the biggest threat in the Region has declared.

Tehran is at the bottom of the main allies of Assad. From Iran-funded militias are not only fighting on the side of the army, but the military command. The Shiite regional power is pursuing the goal of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, about Syria and Iraq, a country to build a corridor to Tehran. So far, the YPG forces are in the way that large parts of the Syrian-Iraqi control of the border. The Kurds should have to honor but of an attack Turkey, they could lose this area, or even voluntarily give up.

And at the end a of the IS

That would have an impact on the fight against the IS, YPG fight together with local allied troops. The extremists have lost in Syria and in Iraq, although the largest part of their former dominion, but are not defeated yet.

cells of the extremists take advantage of the vast desert areas of the Region between the two countries, to dive and to regroup. Chaos, a power vacuum and rival, the fight each other - in such an environment, the IS has become strong again. (sda)

Created: 07.01.2019, 21:56 PM

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