Martin Liby Troein: Therefore succeed the Venezuelan dictator to retain power (and therefore he will lose it)

political scientists are careful to make a distinction between three concepts that are often used more or less as synonyms: state, government and regime. The state is the apparatus that maintains the våldsmonopolet within the nation's territory, dispense justice and delivers a range of public goods – from roads to electricity and water. The government is in control, it determines what the state should devote itself to. The regime constitutes, in turn, the system through which the government is appointed, and can be either democratic or authoritarian.

In december 2015, in which the opposition won a landslide victory in the Venezuelan elections. During the one and a half years, president Nicolás Maduro his best to round the new majority. In the summer of 2017 set up he an own, lydigare assembly and took away from parliament its power.

Thus was completed the regime change has been going on in slow motion in 15 years: the government continued to be the same, but Venezuela stopped being a democracy. It was a change that could be made, therefore, that the Court had the military's support, which he gained by giving the generals control over the country's oil wealth.

the spectacular events in Venezuela dominated the newscasts. Time and time again, tens of thousands of people demonstrated against the president. Juan Guaidó, who is the president of the parliament who lost decision-making powers in 2017, two in January to the interim president, and large parts of the democratic world acknowledged him. The united states has imposed sanctions to put pressure.

the Opposition and international goals has been to force new elections and a new regime change: back to democracy. The hope has been to protests and sanctions to force the military to take his hand from the Attack.

But so far the generals have rallied behind the president. And now is preparing the dictatorship to fight back against the opposition. In the last week was lifted Guaidós immune from prosecution. The risk is that he will soon be imprisoned.

that Maduro has been able to maintain the soldiers ' support and grip on power. Keeps parts of the authoritarian world him on the back. Russia and China to assist with the financial and moral support. Cuba lends a hundred secret service agents, who keep a watchful eye on possible militants within the armed forces.

Return Venezuela to its democratic status and the opposition wins power loses the military control of their economic fögderier.

Secondly, fearing the military risks of a regime and change of government. Return Venezuela to its democratic status and the opposition wins power, you lose control over its economic fögderier. Also can officers be tried for crimes during the dictatorship.

if he wants the outside world to intervene militarily. Donald Trump also insists that ”all options are on the table”.

A military intervention, however, is a terribly dangerous idea. Venezuela is a large country with considerable strengths and varied terrain. The risk of a protracted bloodbath is imminent. In addition, the U.S.-led intervention in a Latin american country give a boost to an international order in which major powers do as they want in their respective geographical spheres of influence.

thankfully, says u.s. allies whose support would be required for an intervention, such as Colombia and Brazil, specifically, no. Possibly with the exception of Trump himself is enough enthusiasm limited also in Washington.

the Maduro government are safe? That the authoritarian regime that was established in 2017 will survive?

For the moment it will be enough. But in the longer term it is doubtful.

It is not just the Venezuelan democratic regime that has been picked apart, the state also fall in pieces. Public goods have not been able to deliver in several years. There is a shortage of water and in the last month, the country has experienced several lengthy power outages. Any monopoly power, the state is no longer justice, it fails to serve. On the streets raging armed gangs freely.

until now, the state has managed to pick up the oil out of the ground and ship it on. But also the ability to be moved. When it no longer succeeds with it learn the price even for the military become too high to support the dictatorship.