Crisis in Venezuela: the power game at the expense of the Poorest

For weeks, Maduro and Guaidó rings in Venezuela to the political leadership. However, currently there seems to be a stalemate, which is especially for the population to stress test.

By Anne-Katrin Mellmann, ARD-Studio, Mexico City, currently Caracas

The political power struggle in Venezuela is being fought on the backs of the most Vulnerable: Approximately 80 percent of the population that can afford to be in the Hyperinflation, neither the scarce food and medicines, before the next low point of the crisis.

The new US sanctions against the socialist government have had an impact: The value of money even more rapidly than in the months before the self-naming of Juan Guaidós to the interim President. Soon, the Maduro government is expected to run out of funds for food imports and the social pressure to rise.

Guaidó calls in accordance with the U.S. government, that the way is made for foreign humanitarian assistance. This is part of the strategy to move the military to the page change.

In Venezuela, interim President, Juan Guaidó...

.. and head of government of Nicolás Maduro, the political leadership fight.

The cancer waits

On the children's ward of a cancer hospital in Caracas, Doctors, patients and parents hope that, at last, help comes from the outside. In government hospitals there is no medicines for good chemotherapy, for surgery, or morphine, nor radiation therapy. The devices are broken and waiting for repair. But the cancer is not waiting.

Yurbi García is on her son's bed and folds her hands, as she speaks about the international offers of help, on currently, the policy dispute is raging: "Not only my son, many children urgently need help. It would be wonderful if you could come into the country."

the son of Roger Rivas has a Tumor that needs surgery. The drugs, the ten-year-old currently receives are from unofficial donations. Rivas hopes:

"It would be good if the issue of health care would not be politically biased. But, unfortunately, it is not so in our country. I hope that there are here and in all of the hospitals have enough medicines. Hopefully, both sides, to leave the politics out of the game, to give in, so that the help can legally come into the country. On the diplomatic art."

In a hospital In Caracas: For years, there is a lack of good medicines, and medical equipment.

Maduro: "We are not beggars!"

Since President Juan Guaidó on 23. January, the transitional President has explained, because the socialist Maduro government was illegal in terms of Power, he has raised hopes: At the top of the government's opponents Guaidó calls on foreign humanitarian aid, and presents itself as the Savior of the needy sections of the population. He is on medication packages, to scan, the are to secret routes into the country, and calls on his followers to voluntary service in the distribution of relief goods, even though the government of Nicolás Maduro rejects any humanitarian aid:

"We can say with Dignity: We are not beggars, we need your crumbs, your poisoned food, tainted food. The USA have invented this humanitarian crisis to justify a military-humanitarian Intervention. We say no!"

That there is Hunger in the Land, denies Maduro. Studies of the Central University of Venezuela occupied by as early as 2016, 90 percent of households cannot buy enough food. For years, the Caritas raises the Alarm because of the constantly rising Numbers of severely malnourished children: Twelve percent were in 2018, nearly 300,000 children may die from the consequences of their malnutrition.

Many suffer, few benefit

economic reforms to solve the crisis has not given it, says Economist Álvarez.

economic reforms to solve the crisis has not given it, says Economist Victor Alvarez. Under Maduro's predecessor, Hugo Chávez, he was Minister for trade and industry. "There is such a policy, many wrong turns and mistakes in the economy. This has created perverse incentives. New power groups - also illegal ones - have emerged, and thus the breeding ground for the black market", writes Alvarez. An example:

"Here the state gives still the gasoline. The price would be aligned with the neighbouring countries, there would be no incentive to smuggle gasoline. But that would go against the interests of a Mafia, the military, government officials, customs officials and entrepreneurs belong to. Such perverse incentives to eradicate, would be a blow against these actors, on which the government relies, in particular, against the military."

The military is equipped with far-reaching privileges to ensure loyalty to the government: the generals lead the ministries that control the transport of natural resources such as oil, and hence the smuggling.

dispute over humanitarian aid for Maduro is only a small concern

Guaidó is trying to pull soldiers and generals with an Amnesty offer to its page and makes pressure with the demand for humanitarian aid. In the Colombian Cúcuta several containers for the onward journey is available in front of the border to Venezuela. Guaidós calculus: If the soldiers follow their Conscience, and the aid through, that would be a clear refusal to obey orders, and the Maduro government in checkmate.

Luis Vicente León, head of the opinion research Institute Datanalisis in Caracas:

declared that "The humanitarian aid in Cúcuta makes Maduro no Worries. His concern is for the oil, he can no longer sell because of new U.S. sanctions now. He can no longer pay for its food imports, and nothing more about the US financial system to handle."

humanitarian aid is a media topic, Vicente León. For Maduro to be much more important, as he can revenue keep control of his country, at 75 percent, less foreign exchange.

"It is a clear strategy of Guaidó-side, to weaken the government, the unity of the armed forces and the dominant Elite to break up. In the face of all these problems, the humanitarian aid is as small as a mosquito."

Maduro's of great concern to the oil, which is stored, among other things, here in Puerto de la Cruz in Tanks. Because of the US sanctions, he can no longer sell it and achieved no foreign currency it needs to pay for imports.

a New buyer for the oil?

Equal to Guaidós self-appointment was imposed by the US government sanctions against the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA. The Economics Professor Luis Oliveros estimates that oil production in the country with the richest Deposits in the world will break into these days more dramatically. Venezuela is facing a special period, Cuba experienced in the 1990s, after the support from the Soviet Union had disappeared.

Economics Professor Oliveros estimates that the country will soon have to import problems.

Very likely to Venezuela in two, three weeks of Import will have problems, estimates Oliveros. Then, the range of goods on offer would go back and even stronger. The social pressure on Maduro would increase, and possibly also the pressure of the military on him. Unless the government find a safe Harbor for the sale of petroleum and would yield new revenue. The US to circumvent the Embargo, should, however, be very difficult, and investment in Venezuela in this Moment of power struggle is unlikely.